As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Category 2 at 81.5% in How strong will Vance be? — $16.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Category 2, is priced at 81.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +66.0 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, Category 2 has traded between 15.5% and 84.0%. It opened at 15.5% and last traded at 84.0%.
Category 2 is favored at 81.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category 2 | 82¢ | 81.5% | +66.0 pts | $4.8K | 28.6% |
| Category 3 | 18¢ | 18.5% | -33.5 pts | $4.0K | 24.0% |
| Category 4 | 1¢ | 0.9% | -25.6 pts | $3.7K | 22.4% |
| Category 5 | 1¢ | 0.6% | -4.4 pts | $575 | 3.4% |
| Category 1 or weaker | 0¢ | 0.2% | -1.7 pts | $3.6K | 21.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$16.6K has been traded on this event in total, $8.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Vance (NHC designation EP222026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Vance in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. If Vance never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes". Wind speeds will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Maximum sustained winds are reported in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Vance will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Vance dissipates. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,069 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,069 | $198 |
| Mellow-Fork | No | 732 | $135 |
| Agitated-Mobster | Yes | 501 | $408 |
| General-Cocktail | Yes | 500 | $408 |
| Mad-School | Yes | 436 | $355 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 410 | $76 |
| 0xf51b1d56… | Yes | 409 | $334 |
| Winged-Maker | No | 366 | $68 |
| Circular-Keystone | Yes | 340 | $277 |
| Jumbo-Cupcake | No | 288 | $53 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 84.0% | $42 |
| Oct 24, 06:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 88.0% | $44 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 84.0% | $84 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.1% | $44 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $126 |
| Oct 24, 06:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 79.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Category 2 at 81.5%. Next is Category 3 at 18.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-category-will-vance-reach?via=bro
$16.6K in total volume, with $8.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
Category 2, priced at 81.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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