As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ $2.5 at 47.5% in What price will Lighter hit in 2026? — $889.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓ $2.5, is priced at 47.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +12.0 pts; past week: -18.0 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.
Since August 25, 2026, ↓ $2.5 has traded between 26.0% and 67.0%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 47.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 47.5% |
↓ $2.5 is favored at 47.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $2.5 | 48¢ | 47.5% | +12.0 pts | $4.3K | 0.5% |
| ↑ $6 | 26¢ | 26.0% | -1.5 pts | $87.9K | 9.9% |
| ↓ $2 | 14¢ | 14.0% | +3.0 pts | $1.2K | 0.1% |
| ↑ $8 | 11¢ | 10.7% | -0.1 pts | $106.6K | 12.0% |
| ↑ $10 | 7¢ | 7.0% | -0.4 pts | $149.8K | 16.9% |
| ↑ $12 | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $7.7K | 0.9% |
| ↑ $15 | 3¢ | 3.3% | +0.1 pts | $977 | 0.1% |
| ↑ $20 | 3¢ | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $503 | 0.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 49¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$889.0K has been traded on this event in total, $717 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Lighter LIT/USDC trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution source: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 656 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jam-Packed-Dividend | No | 656 | $344 |
| Third-Odyssey | Yes | 487 | $231 |
| Empty-Addiction | Yes | 328 | $156 |
| Shrill-Silver | No | 90 | $47 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 73 | $39 |
| Made-Up-Pathology | Yes | 44 | $21 |
| Speedy-Interpretation | Yes | 39 | $19 |
| Rewarding-Pantologist | No | 33 | $17 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 29 | $15 |
| Second-Hand-Neighborhood | No | 24 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.2% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.2% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.9% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 02:26 PM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $37 |
| Oct 23, 01:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 01:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $87 |
| Oct 23, 11:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.1% | $92 |
| Oct 23, 10:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.6% | $123 |
| Oct 23, 09:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 42.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ $2.5 at 47.5%. Next is ↑ $6 at 26.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-lighter-hit-before-2027?via=bro
$889.0K in total volume, with $717 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC.
↓ $2.5, priced at 47.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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