As of October 24, 2026, 06:37 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ $510 at 80.3% in What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in October 2026? — $38.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓ $510, is priced at 80.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.2 pts; past week: +18.2 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, ↓ $510 has traded between 41.2% and 93.7%. It opened at 93.7% and last traded at 67.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 41.2% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 44.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 51.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.5% |
↓ $510 is favored at 80.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $510 | 80¢ | 80.3% | +2.2 pts | $3.0K | 7.8% |
| ↑ $540 | 58¢ | 58.5% | -3.0 pts | $1.6K | 4.2% |
| ↑ $525 | 50¢ | 50.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| ↓ $495 | 49¢ | 49.0% | -17.0 pts | $5.0K | 13.1% |
| ↑ $555 | 30¢ | 30.0% | -6.5 pts | $4.9K | 12.9% |
| ↓ $480 | 20¢ | 20.5% | -1.5 pts | $3.3K | 8.5% |
| ↑ $570 | 19¢ | 19.0% | -1.0 pts | $3.1K | 8.1% |
| ↑ $585 | 10¢ | 9.5% | -1.5 pts | $2.7K | 7.1% |
| ↓ $465 | 8¢ | 8.0% | -2.5 pts | $998 | 2.6% |
| ↓ $435 | 5¢ | 4.9% | +0.7 pts | $837 | 2.2% |
| ↑ $600 | 4¢ | 3.5% | -4.0 pts | $709 | 1.9% |
| ↓ $450 | 3¢ | 3.1% | -2.1 pts | $503 | 1.3% |
| ↑ $615 | 3¢ | 3.0% | -2.0 pts | $648 | 1.7% |
| ↑ $630 | 2¢ | 1.6% | -9.0 pts | $204 | 0.5% |
| ↓ $420 | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $227 | 0.6% |
| ↓ $405 | 1¢ | 0.7% | +0.2 pts | $748 | 2.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 35¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$38.3K has been traded on this event in total, $495 of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 543 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snarling-Pantology | Yes | 543 | $436 |
| Fresh-Cuckoo-Derby | No | 512 | $101 |
| Academic-Waiter-Fencing | No | 60 | $12 |
| Unselfish-Bonus | Yes | 50 | $40 |
| Amazing-Antelope-Shakedown | Yes | 42 | $33 |
| Apt-Antecedent | Yes | 40 | $32 |
| Cheery-Fennel | Yes | 40 | $32 |
| Ill-Informed-Precision | No | 40 | $8 |
| 0xa578b91d… | No | 40 | $8 |
| 0xb3d691c7… | No | 25 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 10:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 08:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 08:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 04:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 04:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ $510 at 80.3%. Next is ↑ $540 at 58.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-msft-hit-in-october-2026?via=bro
$38.3K in total volume, with $495 traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
↓ $510, priced at 80.3% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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