Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑ $770 at 59.5% in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026? — $191.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.4K.
Leading outcome
↑ $770
60%
A 59.5% price implies roughly a 60-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.5 pts
↑ $77059.5%
↓ $76052.5%
Bid
55¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
9¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
Category
Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Hide From New, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Stocks, Equities, SPY
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$191.9K
Volume (24h)
$1.4K
Liquidity
$60.1K
Markets
15
Leading outcome
↑ $770 — 59.5%
Resolution source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, ↑ $770, is priced at 59.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

↑ $770 is favored at 59.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
↑ $77060¢59.5%+1.5 pts$1220.1%
↓ $76052¢52.5%—$00.0%
↓ $75050¢49.5%-1.5 pts$28.7K15.0%
↑ $78022¢22.1%+2.3 pts$7.7K4.0%
↓ $74021¢21.0%-1.5 pts$23.3K12.1%
↓ $7308¢8.0%-0.5 pts$14.3K7.4%
↑ $7908¢7.5%+2.0 pts$23.4K12.2%
↓ $7205¢5.3%-0.5 pts$9.8K5.1%
↓ $7104¢4.0%+0.7 pts$12.1K6.3%
↑ $8004¢3.7%+0.2 pts$18.7K9.7%
↑ $8103¢3.5%-0.1 pts$12.0K6.3%
↑ $8403¢3.2%—$2500.1%
↑ $8202¢2.2%-0.4 pts$5.3K2.7%
↑ $8301¢1.3%—$6060.3%
↓ $7001¢0.9%—$5.2K2.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 55¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$191.9K has been traded on this event in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 54 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Fresh-Cuckoo-DerbyYes54$32
Snarling-PantologyNo20$8
Flat-CheckingNo19$8
Scratchy-SidewalkNo13$5
Expert-MonumentNo10$4
0x28a66540…Yes10$6
Empty-AnnualNo10$4
Remarkable-UnderpassYes9$5

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $434 at 78.8%SELL No — $229 at 82.0%SELL No — $220 at 71.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:49 PM ETNoSELL92.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:53 AM ETYesSELL54.0%$6
Oct 24, 11:27 AM ETNoBUY46.0%$5
Oct 24, 11:26 AM ETNoBUY47.0%$6
Oct 24, 11:20 AM ETNoSELL44.0%$35
Oct 24, 11:18 AM ETNoSELL45.0%$25
Oct 24, 10:18 AM ETNoBUY49.0%$10
Oct 24, 08:14 AM ETYesSELL51.0%$10
Oct 24, 08:14 AM ETYesSELL51.0%$10
Oct 24, 04:52 AM ETYesSELL9.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑ $770 at 59.5%. Next is ↓ $760 at 52.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-october-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026??

$191.9K in total volume, with $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.

When does What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.

What is the most likely outcome of What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

↑ $770, priced at 59.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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