As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑ $4,000 at 52.5% in What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026? — $416.4K traded so far.
↑ $4,000 is favored at 52.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $4,000 | 52¢ | 52.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| ↓ $3,400 | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| ↓ $3,900 | 40¢ | 40.5% | +2.5 pts | $42.0K | 10.1% |
| ↑ $4,100 | 36¢ | 36.0% | +2.5 pts | $1.1K | 0.3% |
| ↓ $3,800 | 11¢ | 11.5% | +2.4 pts | $56.4K | 13.5% |
| ↑ $4,200 | 9¢ | 9.0% | +1.2 pts | $10.8K | 2.6% |
| ↓ $3,700 | 5¢ | 5.0% | +0.8 pts | $27.0K | 6.5% |
| ↑ $4,300 | 4¢ | 4.0% | -2.5 pts | $23.9K | 5.7% |
| ↓ $3,600 | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $18.8K | 4.5% |
| ↑ $4,400 | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.9 pts | $27.8K | 6.7% |
| ↓ $3,500 | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $146 | 0.0% |
| ↑ $4,600 | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $13.2K | 3.2% |
| ↑ $4,500 | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $20.6K | 4.9% |
| ↑ $4,800 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $21.2K | 5.1% |
| ↑ $4,700 | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $30.7K | 7.4% |
| ↑ $4,900 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $31.7K | 7.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 91¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$416.4K has been traded on this event in total, $3.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.1% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 11:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 58.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 11:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 58.0% | $99 |
| Oct 24, 11:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 59.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 10:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.9% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 10:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 10:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.2% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 09:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.5% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑ $4,000 at 52.5%. Next is ↓ $3,400 at 49.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-xauusd-hit-in-october-2026?via=bro
$416.4K in total volume, with $3.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD.
↑ $4,000, priced at 52.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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