As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑ $25 at 84.5% in What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026? — $15.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑ $25, is priced at 84.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +24.0 pts; past month: +42.5 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, ↑ $25 has traded between 26.5% and 85.0%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 82.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.5% |
↑ $25 is favored at 84.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $25 | 84¢ | 84.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.4K | 22.3% |
| ↑ $30 | 60¢ | 59.5% | -8.0 pts | $2.8K | 18.7% |
| ↑ $50 | 56¢ | 56.0% | -2.5 pts | $2.1K | 13.6% |
| ↓ $10 | 36¢ | 36.5% | +7.0 pts | $2.2K | 14.3% |
| ↓ $15 | 33¢ | 33.0% | +1.5 pts | $3.1K | 20.4% |
| ↑ $75 | 23¢ | 23.0% | -1.0 pts | $1.6K | 10.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 78¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$15.0K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the standard output token price of Anthropic's frontier model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Anthropic's frontier model means the model with the highest score in the "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index" (AAII) column of the model leaderboard at https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models among entries listing Anthropic as the "Creator". The "Status" filter must be set to "Current", with "Weights", "Size", "Price", and "Reasoning" set to "All". Only models with a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page will be considered. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. Where the leaderboard lists one model under several reasoning-effort or configuration settings, those entries count as the same model and its highest displayed score applies. If two or more qualifying models share the highest displayed score, all respective standard output token prices of those models will be considered. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 368 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staid-Proceedings | Yes | 368 | $311 |
| Second-Hand-Colt | Yes | 275 | $232 |
| Teeming-Puppet | No | 229 | $35 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 191 | $30 |
| Authorized-Mandolin | No | 141 | $22 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 80 | $12 |
| Faraway-Chive-Cheese | No | 80 | $12 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 59 | $50 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 40 | $34 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | No | 39 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 06:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 24.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 06:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 01:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 8.5% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 07:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 28.5% | $16 |
| Oct 17, 04:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $13 |
| Oct 17, 10:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 50.0% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 02:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 17, 02:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $17 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑ $25 at 84.5%. Next is ↑ $30 at 59.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-anthropics-frontier-output-token-price-hit-in-2026?via=bro
$15.0K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing.
↑ $25, priced at 84.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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