As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $1M at 18.5% in What will Based prediction market revenue hit before 2027? — $42.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $1M, is priced at 18.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.0 pts; past week: +9.5 pts; past month: +10.0 pts.
Since December 11, 2025, $1M has traded between 5.0% and 92.5%. It opened at 67.0% and last traded at 18.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 18.5% |
$1M is favored at 18.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1M | 18¢ | 18.5% | +8.0 pts | $17.6K | 41.9% |
| $2M | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $6.5K | 15.5% |
| $4M | 4¢ | 3.8% | — | $7.0K | 16.6% |
| $3M | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.5 pts | $4.1K | 9.9% |
| $5M | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $6.8K | 16.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 21¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$42.0K has been traded on this event in total, $27 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point. This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.
Resolution source: https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,549 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pastel-Mood | No | 3,549 | $2.9K |
| Made-Up-Passenger | Yes | 3,205 | $593 |
| Sweaty-Yard | Yes | 1,000 | $185 |
| Kindhearted-Bandwidth | No | 954 | $778 |
| Subdued-Revenant | No | 496 | $404 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 213 | $39 |
| Innocent-Stain | Yes | 196 | $36 |
| Buzzing-Vendor | Yes | 130 | $24 |
| Optimal-Fishing | Yes | 100 | $18 |
| Doting-Email | Yes | 100 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $19 |
| Oct 22, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 08:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 08:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.9% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 11:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $340 |
| Oct 20, 11:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.3% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 11:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.8% | $150 |
| Oct 20, 10:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.3% | $500 |
| Oct 20, 10:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.2% | $555 |
| Oct 20, 10:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.2% | $300 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is $1M at 18.5%. Next is $2M at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-based-prediction-market-revenue-hit-before-2027?via=bro
$42.0K in total volume, with $27 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics.
$1M, priced at 18.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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