As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Fuel duty increase at 16.5% in What will be in the UK Budget? — $19.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Fuel duty increase, is priced at 16.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -16.5 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, Fuel duty increase has traded between 8.5% and 48.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 17.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 17.0% |
Fuel duty increase is favored at 16.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel duty increase | 16¢ | 16.5% | -1.5 pts | $5.3K | 27.9% |
| Wealth tax | 6¢ | 6.1% | +1.6 pts | $841 | 4.4% |
| Land value tax | 5¢ | 5.1% | +1.6 pts | $1.8K | 9.4% |
| CGT increase | 3¢ | 3.2% | -1.1 pts | $11.1K | 58.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 27¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$19.0K has been traded on this event in total, $195 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows: - Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets. - Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home. - Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty. - CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax. A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count. For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase. If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No". … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 877 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 877 | $145 |
| Unwilling-Evocation | No | 625 | $522 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | No | 585 | $489 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 471 | $78 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 200 | $33 |
| Loyal-Timing-Countess | No | 186 | $155 |
| 0xa832e7af… | No | 105 | $88 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 60 | $10 |
| Pertinent-Terrapin | No | 25 | $21 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 22 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 11:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.4% | $95 |
| Oct 23, 05:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.3% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 01:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $423 |
| Oct 22, 04:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 03:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 06:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Fuel duty increase at 16.5%. Next is Wealth tax at 6.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-in-the-uk-budget-20260914?via=bro
$19.0K in total volume, with $195 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Fuel duty increase, priced at 16.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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