As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ $40 at 60.5% in What will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026? — $26.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓ $40, is priced at 60.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.0 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: +18.5 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, ↓ $40 has traded between 7.0% and 65.5%. It opened at 42.0% and last traded at 65.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 65.5% |
↓ $40 is favored at 60.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $40 | 60¢ | 60.5% | -5.0 pts | $4.0K | 15.1% |
| ↓ $45 | 60¢ | 59.5% | -6.0 pts | $9.2K | 34.8% |
| ↑ $60 | 15¢ | 15.0% | +2.5 pts | $4.0K | 15.0% |
| ↓ $30 | 15¢ | 15.0% | +0.5 pts | $3.9K | 14.8% |
| ↑ $55 | 14¢ | 14.5% | +3.0 pts | $4.5K | 17.0% |
| ↑ $70 | 3¢ | 3.3% | -0.5 pts | $864 | 3.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$26.5K has been traded on this event in total, $553 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Fable model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Anthropic's latest Claude Fable model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Fable, such as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1, that have a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Base tokens” output price on Anthropic’s official API pricing page for default global inference, at the rate applicable to requests that do not trigger a long-context surcharge. Prices for batch, fast mode, cached, or US-only inference and other data-residency variants will not be considered. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 256 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prize-Maybe | Yes | 256 | $155 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 255 | $101 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 231 | $140 |
| Pleased-Horror | No | 202 | $80 |
| Single-Antique | Yes | 176 | $106 |
| Portly-Quiet-Mycoplasma | No | 40 | $16 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 39 | $16 |
| Calculating-Sideburns | No | 39 | $15 |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | Yes | 27 | $16 |
| Pesky-Glutamate | No | 27 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 38.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 57.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:48 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 57.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 44.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 08:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 34.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 08:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ $40 at 60.5%. Next is ↓ $45 at 59.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-claude-fable-output-token-price-hit-in-2026?via=bro
$26.5K in total volume, with $553 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing.
↓ $40, priced at 60.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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