As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑ 4.25% at 74.4% in What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? — $1.89M traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑ 4.25%, is priced at 74.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.1 pts; past week: -4.1 pts; past month: -15.7 pts.
Since November 18, 2025, ↑ 4.25% has traded between 3.1% and 90.1%. It opened at 32.5% and last traded at 74.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 85.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 79.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 81.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 75.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 74.4% |
↑ 4.25% is favored at 74.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 4.25% | 74¢ | 74.4% | -1.1 pts | $148.7K | 7.9% |
| ↑ 4.5% | 9¢ | 8.7% | -6.0 pts | $50.2K | 2.6% |
| ↑ 4.75% | 8¢ | 7.8% | -0.3 pts | $81.3K | 4.3% |
| ↑ 5.0% | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $20.2K | 1.1% |
| ↓ 0.5% | 3¢ | 2.5% | — | $108.0K | 5.7% |
| ↓ 2.75% | 2¢ | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $373.7K | 19.7% |
| ↓ 0% | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $21.4K | 1.1% |
| ↑ 5.5% | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $57.3K | 3.0% |
| ↑ 5.25% | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $142.7K | 7.5% |
| ↓ 1.0% | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $2.4K | 0.1% |
| ↓ 1.5% | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $28.4K | 1.5% |
| ↓ 0.75% | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $741 | 0.0% |
| ↓ 0.25% | 2¢ | 2.0% | +0.4 pts | $132.6K | 7.0% |
| ↓ 3.25% | 2¢ | 1.9% | +0.1 pts | $82.2K | 4.3% |
| ↓ 2.25% | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $42.4K | 2.2% |
| ↓ 2.5% | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $227.4K | 12.0% |
| ↓ 1.25% | 2¢ | 1.5% | — | $5.2K | 0.3% |
| ↓ 3.0% | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $323.6K | 17.1% |
| ↓ 2.0% | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $23.1K | 1.2% |
| ↓ 1.75% | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $13.3K | 0.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 72¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.89M has been traded on this event in total, $2.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 20 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,093 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimmering-Reindeer | No | 7,093 | $1.8K |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings | Yes | 5,565 | $4.1K |
| Heavy-Gentleman | No | 4,000 | $1.0K |
| Grubby-Mall | Yes | 3,467 | $2.6K |
| Testy-Operator | Yes | 3,099 | $2.3K |
| Outrageous-Durian-Pawnshop | No | 2,000 | $512 |
| Original-Knee | No | 1,579 | $404 |
| Ample-Instance | No | 1,555 | $398 |
| Pepe1234567 | No | 1,385 | $355 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 1,238 | $921 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 07:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 02:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 01:09 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 12:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 12:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.1% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 12:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.6% | $58 |
| Oct 22, 12:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑ 4.25% at 74.4%. Next is ↑ 4.5% at 8.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027?via=bro
$1.89M in total volume, with $2.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 20 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
↑ 4.25%, priced at 74.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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