Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ $40 at 68.0% in What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026? — $16.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $306.
Leading outcome
↓ $40
68%
A 68.0% price implies roughly a 68-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +10.5 pts7D +16.0 pts30D +31.5 pts
↓ $4068.0%
↓ $3029.0%
Bid
64¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
8¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 24, 2026: 33.0% – 68.0% · Opened at 42.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026?
Category
AI, Tech, OpenAI, Compute, AI Benchmarks
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$16.9K
Volume (24h)
$306
Liquidity
$2.2K
Markets
6
Leading outcome
↓ $40 — 68.0%
Resolution source
https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, ↓ $40, is priced at 68.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.5 pts; past week: +16.0 pts; past month: +31.5 pts.

Since September 24, 2026, ↓ $40 has traded between 33.0% and 68.0%. It opened at 42.0% and last traded at 68.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202655.5%
Oct 18, 202651.0%
Oct 19, 202655.5%
Oct 20, 202656.0%
Oct 22, 202657.0%
Oct 23, 202654.5%
Oct 24, 202668.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

↓ $40 is favored at 68.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
↓ $4068¢68.0%+10.5 pts$2.9K17.3%
↓ $3029¢29.0%-1.5 pts$3.3K19.5%
↑ $6028¢28.5%+3.5 pts$3.4K20.1%
↑ $7516¢16.5%+4.5 pts$3.3K19.7%
↓ $2510¢9.5%—$2.3K13.3%
↑ $1006¢5.5%-1.0 pts$1.7K10.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 64¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$16.9K has been traded on this event in total, $306 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of OpenAI's latest GPT Astra model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". OpenAI's latest GPT Astra model means the model with the highest GPT version number among models by OpenAI explicitly named Astra, such as GPT-6 Astra, that have a standard output token price listed on OpenAI's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Standard” output token price on OpenAI’s official API pricing page, using the “Short context” rate where context-based pricing differs. Prices for batch, flex, fast mode, priority, long-context, cached, or regional and data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 791 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Prize-MaybeYes791$538
Authorized-MandolinNo372$119
Belated-GlueNo196$63
Pushy-FaithNo140$45
Direct-ChainstayYes89$60
Gleaming-HandlebarNo80$26
Sore-PitchingNo49$16
Required-HornNo40$13
Sparse-CookieYes25$17
Piercing-FormationYes20$14

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $399 at 95.0%BUY No — $248 at 80.6%BUY No — $169 at 60.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:29 PM ETNoBUY72.0%$38
Oct 24, 08:31 AM ETNoSELL87.0%$14
Oct 24, 08:31 AM ETNoSELL51.2%$10
Oct 24, 08:31 AM ETYesSELL25.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:31 AM ETYesBUY29.0%$2
Oct 24, 08:31 AM ETYesBUY29.0%$6
Oct 24, 08:31 AM ETYesBUY26.1%$12
Oct 24, 08:31 AM ETNoSELL74.0%$31
Oct 24, 01:31 AM ETNoBUY67.0%$13
Oct 24, 01:25 AM ETYesBUY28.0%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ $40 at 68.0%. Next is ↓ $30 at 29.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-gpt-astra-output-token-price-hit-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026??

$16.9K in total volume, with $306 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.

When does What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing.

What is the most likely outcome of What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

↓ $40, priced at 68.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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