As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ $40 at 68.0% in What will GPT Astra's output token price hit in 2026? — $16.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓ $40, is priced at 68.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.5 pts; past week: +16.0 pts; past month: +31.5 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, ↓ $40 has traded between 33.0% and 68.0%. It opened at 42.0% and last traded at 68.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.0% |
↓ $40 is favored at 68.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $40 | 68¢ | 68.0% | +10.5 pts | $2.9K | 17.3% |
| ↓ $30 | 29¢ | 29.0% | -1.5 pts | $3.3K | 19.5% |
| ↑ $60 | 28¢ | 28.5% | +3.5 pts | $3.4K | 20.1% |
| ↑ $75 | 16¢ | 16.5% | +4.5 pts | $3.3K | 19.7% |
| ↓ $25 | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $2.3K | 13.3% |
| ↑ $100 | 6¢ | 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.7K | 10.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 64¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$16.9K has been traded on this event in total, $306 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of OpenAI's latest GPT Astra model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". OpenAI's latest GPT Astra model means the model with the highest GPT version number among models by OpenAI explicitly named Astra, such as GPT-6 Astra, that have a standard output token price listed on OpenAI's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Standard” output token price on OpenAI’s official API pricing page, using the “Short context” rate where context-based pricing differs. Prices for batch, flex, fast mode, priority, long-context, cached, or regional and data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 791 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prize-Maybe | Yes | 791 | $538 |
| Authorized-Mandolin | No | 372 | $119 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 196 | $63 |
| Pushy-Faith | No | 140 | $45 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 89 | $60 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 80 | $26 |
| Sore-Pitching | No | 49 | $16 |
| Required-Horn | No | 40 | $13 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 25 | $17 |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 20 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 51.2% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.1% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $31 |
| Oct 24, 01:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 01:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ $40 at 68.0%. Next is ↓ $30 at 29.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-gpt-astra-output-token-price-hit-in-2026?via=bro
$16.9K in total volume, with $306 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing.
↓ $40, priced at 68.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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