As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑ $15 at 41.0% in What will GPT Sol's output token price hit in 2026? — $7.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑ $15, is priced at 41.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +15.0 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, ↑ $15 has traded between 16.5% and 43.0%. It opened at 42.0% and last traded at 41.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 41.0% |
↑ $15 is favored at 41.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $15 | 41¢ | 41.0% | +1.0 pts | $1.4K | 18.8% |
| ↓ $8 | 33¢ | 33.0% | -1.0 pts | $3.0K | 38.9% |
| ↓ $5 | 32¢ | 32.5% | -7.0 pts | $564 | 7.4% |
| ↑ $20 | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.1 pts | $2.7K | 34.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 60¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of OpenAI's latest GPT Sol model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". OpenAI's latest GPT Sol model means the model with the highest GPT version number among models by OpenAI explicitly named Sol, such as GPT-5.6 Sol or GPT-6 Sol, that have a standard output token price listed on OpenAI's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Standard” output token price on OpenAI’s official API pricing page, using the “Short context” rate where context-based pricing differs. Prices for batch, flex, fast mode, priority, long-context, cached, or regional and data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 360 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spiffy-Enactment-Strength | No | 360 | $212 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 120 | $49 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 100 | $41 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 71 | $29 |
| Zigzag-Conspirator-Glee | No | 46 | $27 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 35 | $14 |
| Insidious-Meteor | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Potable-Carotene-Temperature | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Irritating-Initial-Filing | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 03:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 11:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $28 |
| Oct 22, 11:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $144 |
| Oct 22, 11:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.1% | $853 |
| Oct 22, 11:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.1% | $123 |
| Oct 19, 06:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 08:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 16, 08:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
| Oct 16, 07:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 11:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑ $15 at 41.0%. Next is ↓ $8 at 33.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-gpt-sol-output-token-price-hit-in-2026?via=bro
$7.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing.
↑ $15, priced at 41.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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