As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Winchester Model 1873 at 66.5% in What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun? — $13.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Winchester Model 1873, is priced at 66.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +9.0 pts; past month: +23.5 pts.
Since July 30, 2026, Winchester Model 1873 has traded between 27.5% and 68.5%. It opened at 42.5% and last traded at 66.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 66.5% |
Winchester Model 1873 is favored at 66.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winchester Model 1873 | 66¢ | 66.5% | — | $5.7K | 43.2% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Colt Peacemaker | 16¢ | 16.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.5K | 26.9% |
| Colt M1911 | 8¢ | 8.0% | +2.0 pts | $1.7K | 12.8% |
| Winchester Model 1894 | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.8 pts | $1.3K | 9.8% |
| M1 Garand | 4¢ | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $389 | 3.0% |
| Remington Model 700 | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.2 pts | $562 | 4.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 66¢ / ask 67¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.1K has been traded on this event in total, $595 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named options will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more options are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the options. This market will resolve to the option that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).
Resolution source: https://sos.idaho.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 614 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | No | 614 | $206 |
| Guilty-Spring | Yes | 449 | $299 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 269 | $90 |
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 244 | $162 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 238 | $80 |
| Outlandish-Complicity | Yes | 234 | $156 |
| Known-Use | No | 171 | $57 |
| Gifted-Rancher | Yes | 100 | $66 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 62 | $21 |
| Forthright-Forager | Yes | 60 | $40 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 62.7% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 06:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 62.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 63.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 05:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 34.0% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 05:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 05:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 34.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Winchester Model 1873 at 66.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-idaho-voters-choose-as-their-state-gun-20260729163325833?via=bro
$13.1K in total volume, with $595 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://sos.idaho.gov/.
Winchester Model 1873, priced at 66.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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