As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.25% at 69.0% in What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — $7.10M traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4.25%, is priced at 69.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.9 pts; past week: +2.7 pts; past month: +29.2 pts.
Since January 12, 2026, 4.25% has traded between 0.1% and 69.8%. It opened at 0.7% and last traded at 69.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 59.6% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 59.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 65.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 69.8% |
4.25% is favored at 69.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25% | 69¢ | 69.0% | -0.9 pts | $578.6K | 8.1% |
| 4.0% | 20¢ | 19.7% | +1.7 pts | $1.38M | 19.4% |
| ≥ 4.5% | 8¢ | 8.5% | -0.8 pts | $2.43M | 34.2% |
| 3.5% | 1¢ | 1.4% | -0.1 pts | $209.2K | 2.9% |
| 3.75% | 1¢ | 1.0% | -0.1 pts | $540.6K | 7.6% |
| ≤1.0% | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $277.2K | 3.9% |
| 3.25% | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $88.5K | 1.2% |
| 1.25 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $155.7K | 2.2% |
| 2.25% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $96.4K | 1.4% |
| 2.5% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $187.1K | 2.6% |
| 3.0% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $503.6K | 7.1% |
| 1.75% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $156.1K | 2.2% |
| 2.0% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $271.9K | 3.8% |
| 2.75% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $74.9K | 1.1% |
| 1.5% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $152.5K | 2.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 68¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.10M has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 24,901 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 24,901 | $7.7K |
| Modern-Malice | No | 10,707 | $3.3K |
| Awkward-Stepaunt | Yes | 5,270 | $3.6K |
| Original-Knee | Yes | 5,134 | $3.5K |
| Sardonic-Cue | Yes | 4,005 | $2.8K |
| Grubby-Mall | Yes | 2,753 | $1.9K |
| Crowded-Farming | Yes | 2,000 | $1.4K |
| Crisp-Scarf | Yes | 1,651 | $1.1K |
| Noxious-Forestry | Yes | 1,500 | $1.0K |
| Silent-Obsidian | Yes | 1,494 | $1.0K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.1% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.0% | $323 |
| Oct 24, 06:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.8% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.9% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.1% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 02:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.6% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 11:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 28.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.25% at 69.0%. Next is 4.0% at 19.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026?via=bro
$7.10M in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
4.25%, priced at 69.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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