As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <$445K at 37.4% in What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31? — $27.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, <$445K, is priced at 37.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.2 pts; past week: +21.0 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, <$445K has traded between 1.1% and 38.5%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 38.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 13.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 19.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 16.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 21.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 27.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 38.0% |
<$445K is favored at 37.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$445K | 37¢ | 37.4% | +10.2 pts | $1.7K | 6.0% |
| $445K - $458K | 32¢ | 32.5% | +2.5 pts | $3.8K | 13.7% |
| $458K - $471K | 23¢ | 22.7% | +0.2 pts | $3.4K | 12.1% |
| $471K - $484K | 6¢ | 5.6% | -0.4 pts | $3.6K | 12.9% |
| $484K - $497K | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.7 pts | $6.3K | 22.5% |
| $510K+ | 5¢ | 4.7% | -0.1 pts | $4.3K | 15.6% |
| $497K - $510K | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $4.8K | 17.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.8K has been traded on this event in total, $170 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/58)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 945 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 945 | $592 |
| Chief-Plot | Yes | 546 | $204 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 218 | $81 |
| Clear-Cut-Tuna | Yes | 120 | $45 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 57 | $21 |
| Blushing-Audit-Position | Yes | 41 | $15 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 40 | $25 |
| Giving-Mobster | Yes | 40 | $15 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 40 | $25 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 15 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.9% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.4% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 08:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 08:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.2% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 08:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.9% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 11:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.9% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 11:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.5% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is <$445K at 37.4%. Next is $445K - $458K at 32.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-new-york-city-be-on-december-31?via=bro
$27.8K in total volume, with $170 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
<$445K, priced at 37.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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