As of October 24, 2026, 08:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <$397K at 44.0% in What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31? — $28.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, <$397K, is priced at 44.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -1.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, <$397K has traded between 6.5% and 45.5%. It opened at 25.5% and last traded at 44.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 41.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 44.0% |
<$397K is favored at 44.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$397K | 44¢ | 44.0% | -1.0 pts | $8.2K | 28.6% |
| $397K - $407K | 25¢ | 24.9% | -0.1 pts | $3.6K | 12.7% |
| $407K - $417K | 15¢ | 15.0% | +0.5 pts | $3.8K | 13.4% |
| $417K - $427K | 8¢ | 7.8% | +4.2 pts | $1.5K | 5.4% |
| $446K+ | 3¢ | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $2.2K | 7.7% |
| $427K - $437K | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $7.9K | 27.7% |
| $437K - $446K | 2¢ | 1.8% | -0.1 pts | $1.3K | 4.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 45¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$28.5K has been traded on this event in total, $94 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/59)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 831 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 831 | $466 |
| Chief-Plot | Yes | 531 | $233 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 290 | $128 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 237 | $133 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 165 | $72 |
| This-Wiretap | Yes | 98 | $43 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 87 | $38 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 73 | $41 |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | No | 60 | $34 |
| 0x46299616… | No | 30 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 54.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 53.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 10:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 10:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 10:12 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 10:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 08:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $48 |
| Oct 22, 08:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is <$397K at 44.0%. Next is $397K - $407K at 24.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-austin-metro-area-be-on-december-31?via=bro
$28.5K in total volume, with $94 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
<$397K, priced at 44.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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