As of October 24, 2026, 08:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <$1.062M at 63.7% in What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31? — $28.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, <$1.062M, is priced at 63.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +60.1 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, <$1.062M has traded between 3.6% and 65.8%. It opened at 48.0% and last traded at 63.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 3.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 17.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 45.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 65.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 65.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 63.6% |
<$1.062M is favored at 63.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$1.062M | 64¢ | 63.7% | -1.5 pts | $10.0K | 35.2% |
| $1.062M - $1.083M | 20¢ | 20.2% | -2.7 pts | $3.2K | 11.2% |
| $1.165M+ | 7¢ | 6.6% | -0.1 pts | $4.3K | 15.2% |
| $1.125M - $1.146M | 5¢ | 4.7% | +3.9 pts | $2.9K | 10.4% |
| $1.104M - $1.125M | 4¢ | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $2.8K | 9.8% |
| $1.083M - $1.104M | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.1 pts | $3.2K | 11.2% |
| $1.146M - $1.165M | 4¢ | 4.0% | +3.5 pts | $2.0K | 7.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 62¢ / ask 66¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$28.4K has been traded on this event in total, $126 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/60)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,065 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | Yes | 1,065 | $678 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 870 | $554 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 840 | $305 |
| Chief-Plot | No | 414 | $150 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 194 | $70 |
| Sharp-Astrakhan | No | 136 | $49 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 105 | $38 |
| Absolute-Cockpit-Dungarees | No | 70 | $25 |
| Hurtful-Nuke | No | 40 | $15 |
| Poor-Update-Opera | No | 40 | $15 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 01:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 01:26 AM ET | No | SELL | 33.4% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 01:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.6% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.5% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 01:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 01:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 12:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.6% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 12:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 12:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.9% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is <$1.062M at 63.7%. Next is $1.062M - $1.083M at 20.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-san-francisco-metro-area-be-on-december-31?via=bro
$28.4K in total volume, with $126 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
<$1.062M, priced at 63.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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