As of October 24, 2026, 08:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $407K - $411K at 39.5% in What will the median home value in the US be on December 31? — $29.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $407K - $411K, is priced at 39.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -6.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, $407K - $411K has traded between 19.0% and 54.5%. It opened at 25.5% and last traded at 38.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 38.0% |
$407K - $411K is favored at 39.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $407K - $411K | 40¢ | 39.5% | +1.5 pts | $10.8K | 37.1% |
| $403K - $407K | 35¢ | 35.0% | +2.5 pts | $3.8K | 13.0% |
| $411K - $415K | 10¢ | 10.2% | +5.3 pts | $1.6K | 5.5% |
| <$403K | 10¢ | 9.6% | -1.0 pts | $2.6K | 8.8% |
| $423K+ | 10¢ | 9.6% | +1.2 pts | $828 | 2.8% |
| $415K - $419K | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $4.8K | 16.4% |
| $419K - $423K | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $4.8K | 16.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$29.1K has been traded on this event in total, $154 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/57)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,401 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 1,401 | $553 |
| Chief-Plot | No | 569 | $344 |
| Few-Prevention | No | 526 | $318 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 372 | $225 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 164 | $65 |
| Eminent-Pepper | No | 105 | $64 |
| Known-Use | No | 56 | $34 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 53 | $21 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 40 | $16 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 36 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 06:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 38.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 06:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 06:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 11:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $50 |
| Oct 23, 11:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 05:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 02:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 37.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is $407K - $411K at 39.5%. Next is $403K - $407K at 35.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-december-31?via=bro
$29.1K in total volume, with $154 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
$407K - $411K, priced at 39.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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