As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Over 2.5 at 69.5% in What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? — $123.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Over 2.5, is priced at 69.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.5 pts; past week: -7.0 pts; past month: -7.5 pts.
Since August 17, 2026, Over 2.5 has traded between 40.0% and 83.0%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 70.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 70.5% |
Over 2.5 is favored at 69.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 70¢ | 69.5% | +6.5 pts | $53.7K | 43.6% |
| 2.25–2.5 | 30¢ | 30.0% | -2.5 pts | $55.3K | 45.0% |
| 2.0–2.25 | 1¢ | 1.5% | -0.8 pts | $6.9K | 5.6% |
| 1.5–2.0 | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.4 pts | $5.5K | 4.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | 1.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 69¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$123.0K has been traded on this event in total, $2.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Resolution source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,696 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 4,696 | $1.4K |
| Annual-Commercial | Yes | 1,851 | $1.3K |
| Fine-Fall | Yes | 1,667 | $1.2K |
| Cheery-Science | Yes | 1,633 | $1.1K |
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 1,540 | $1.1K |
| 0xef34794e… | No | 1,119 | $341 |
| Teeming-Puppet | No | 665 | $203 |
| Intentional-Engagement | No | 600 | $183 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 475 | $330 |
| Puny-Pest | Yes | 460 | $320 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 68.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 31.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 31.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $108 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Over 2.5 at 69.5%. Next is 2.25–2.5 at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957?via=bro
$123.0K in total volume, with $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.
Over 2.5, priced at 69.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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