As of October 24, 2026, 09:11 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Israel at 62.0% in What will Trump post this week? (October 19 - October 25) — $939 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Israel, is priced at 62.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +13.0 pts.
Since October 18, 2026, Israel has traded between 46.0% and 74.5%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 62.0%.
Israel is favored at 62.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 62¢ | 62.0% | -1.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Greenland | 50¢ | 50.0% | -8.0 pts | $71 | 7.6% |
| Moon / UFO / UAP | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $39 | 4.1% |
| Ceasefire / Uranium | 50¢ | 50.0% | +1.0 pts | $63 | 6.7% |
| Trump Ocean / Trump Strait | 38¢ | 37.5% | — | $134 | 14.3% |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 38¢ | 37.5% | -3.5 pts | $177 | 18.9% |
| Allah | 37¢ | 37.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Flying Car / Roadster | 37¢ | 36.5% | — | $43 | 4.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 72¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$939 has been traded on this event in total, $70 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. … (condensed)
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 02:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $16 |
| Oct 21, 01:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 01:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 01:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $25 |
| Oct 18, 03:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.8% | $11 |
| Oct 18, 04:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.8% | $24 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Israel at 62.0%. Next is Greenland at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-post-this-week-october-19-october-25-2026?via=bro
$939 in total volume, with $70 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Israel, priced at 62.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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