As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Russia / Ukraine at 79.5% in What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Michigan? — $8.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Russia / Ukraine, is priced at 79.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +26.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, Russia / Ukraine has traded between 66.0% and 79.5%. It opened at 66.0% and last traded at 79.5%.
Russia / Ukraine is favored at 79.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia / Ukraine | 80¢ | 79.5% | +26.5 pts | $785 | 9.4% |
| Canada 4+ times | 78¢ | 78.5% | +28.5 pts | $302 | 3.6% |
| SI / Super Intelligence | 74¢ | 73.5% | +23.5 pts | $450 | 5.4% |
| Hormuz / Blockade | 72¢ | 71.5% | +21.5 pts | $193 | 2.3% |
| Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times | 58¢ | 58.0% | +8.0 pts | $337 | 4.1% |
| Marxist | 58¢ | 58.0% | +29.0 pts | $669 | 8.0% |
| Maduro | 58¢ | 58.0% | +8.0 pts | $156 | 1.9% |
| Hell 15+ times | 54¢ | 53.5% | +3.5 pts | $46 | 0.6% |
| Electric / Electricity | 52¢ | 52.5% | +2.5 pts | $200 | 2.4% |
| Ass | 51¢ | 51.0% | +1.0 pts | $61 | 0.7% |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | 48¢ | 48.5% | -1.5 pts | $152 | 1.8% |
| Transgender 7+ times | 47¢ | 47.0% | -3.0 pts | $318 | 3.8% |
| Osama Bin Laden | 44¢ | 44.5% | +26.5 pts | $486 | 5.8% |
| China / Chinese 7+ times | 40¢ | 39.5% | -10.5 pts | $863 | 10.4% |
| Palestine / Palestinian | 29¢ | 29.0% | +6.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 28¢ | 28.5% | -21.0 pts | $260 | 3.1% |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | 28¢ | 28.0% | -22.0 pts | $52 | 0.6% |
| Data Center | 26¢ | 25.5% | -0.5 pts | $11 | 0.1% |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 2¢ | 1.8% | -48.2 pts | $608 | 7.3% |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 2¢ | 1.6% | -16.4 pts | $2.4K | 28.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.2K has been traded on this event in total, $8.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 20 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 03:05 PM ET.
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in St. Clair, Michigan on October 26, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-st-clair-mi-president-donald-j-trump-djt47) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Michigan on October 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 546 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Understated-Patient | Yes | 546 | $434 |
| Witty-Conviction | No | 250 | $51 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 183 | $37 |
| Measly-Gelatin | Yes | 103 | $82 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery | No | 63 | $13 |
| Impassioned-Chastity | No | 50 | $10 |
| Known-Use | No | 32 | $7 |
| Defensive-Cohesion | No | 29 | $6 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | No | 21 | $4 |
| Harmonious-Cage | No | 21 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 06:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $57 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 50.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 42.8% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 44.9% | $49 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Russia / Ukraine at 79.5%. Next is Canada 4+ times at 78.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-his-midterm-rally-in-michigan-october-26?via=bro
$8.2K in total volume, with $8.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 20 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 03:05 PM ET.
Russia / Ukraine, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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