As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ 37% at 84.8% in What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027? — $21.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓ 37%, is priced at 84.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +12.4 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, ↓ 37% has traded between 72.0% and 93.7%. It opened at 72.0% and last traded at 85.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 93.7% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 86.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.7% |
↓ 37% is favored at 84.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 37% | 85¢ | 84.8% | +0.2 pts | $755 | 3.6% |
| ↑ 39% | 62¢ | 61.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.8K | 13.2% |
| ↓ 36% | 62¢ | 61.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.6K | 7.5% |
| ↑ 40% | 54¢ | 53.5% | +11.5 pts | $2.8K | 13.2% |
| ↓ 35% | 52¢ | 51.5% | +9.5 pts | $1.9K | 9.1% |
| ↓ 34% | 48¢ | 47.5% | -1.5 pts | $1.4K | 6.8% |
| ↑ 41% | 34¢ | 34.5% | -7.0 pts | $1.8K | 8.7% |
| ↑ 42% | 22¢ | 22.5% | +4.0 pts | $1.1K | 5.4% |
| ↑ 44% | 10¢ | 10.0% | -0.5 pts | $1.6K | 7.7% |
| ↓ 30% | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $1.7K | 8.2% |
| ↓ 32% | 8¢ | 7.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.9K | 13.8% |
| ↑ 46% | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $577 | 2.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 82¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$21.0K has been traded on this event in total, $944 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling reaches the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on any date between market creation and June 30, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For markets listed with an upward arrow (↑), the approval rating must be equal to or higher than the listed value. For markets listed with a downward arrow (↓), the approval rating must be equal to or lower than the listed value. This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on each date in the window. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after these times will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 140 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crisp-Official | Yes | 140 | $119 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 101 | $15 |
| Sorrowful-Canoe-Shakedown | No | 69 | $11 |
| Left-Lipoprotein | Yes | 65 | $55 |
| Evil-Row | No | 27 | $4 |
| Golden-Chivalry | Yes | 20 | $17 |
| Stunning-Jewel | No | 20 | $3 |
| Dimpled-Spiderling | No | 7 | $1 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 1 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 37.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 52.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 10:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 08:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 44.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 02:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ 37% at 84.8%. Next is ↑ 39% at 61.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trumps-approval-rating-hit-by-june-30-2027?via=bro
$21.0K in total volume, with $944 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating.
↓ 37%, priced at 84.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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