As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price by December 31, 2027 at 74.0% in When will Bitcoin hit $100k? — $136.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, by December 31, 2027, is priced at 74.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +5.0 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since August 20, 2026, by December 31, 2027 has traded between 60.0% and 93.0%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 74.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 74.0% |
by December 31, 2027 is favored at 74.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| by December 31, 2027 | 74¢ | 74.0% | — | $9.3K | 6.8% |
| by September 30, 2027 | 64¢ | 63.5% | -0.5 pts | $12.5K | 9.2% |
| by June 30, 2027 | 53¢ | 53.0% | -0.5 pts | $6.8K | 5.0% |
| by March 31, 2027 | 43¢ | 43.0% | — | $6.7K | 4.9% |
| by December 31, 2026 | 18¢ | 18.0% | -3.5 pts | $58.9K | 43.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$136.4K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,672 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glistening-Struggle-Pulse | No | 3,672 | $955 |
| Mammoth-Disclaimer | Yes | 1,000 | $740 |
| Unsung-Insert-Fun | No | 1,000 | $260 |
| Imaginary-Recipient | Yes | 963 | $713 |
| Infantile-Subconscious-Lipid | Yes | 800 | $592 |
| Funny-Mayonnaise | Yes | 622 | $460 |
| Experienced-Pickle | Yes | 500 | $370 |
| Mushy-Ox-Aunt | No | 500 | $130 |
| Plush-Dirt | Yes | 483 | $357 |
| Prudent-Realization-Farrow | No | 428 | $111 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 76.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 09:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 08:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.9% | $175 |
| Oct 23, 08:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is by December 31, 2027 at 74.0%. Next is by September 30, 2027 at 63.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-bitcoin-hit-100k?via=bro
$136.4K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.
by December 31, 2027, priced at 74.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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