Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 9–November 15 at 20.0% in When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? — $11.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.4K.
Leading outcome
November 9–November 15
20%
A 20.0% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.5 pts
November 9–November 1520.0%
November 30–December 613.5%
Bid
19¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since October 22, 2026: 16.5% – 20.0% · Opened at 16.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?
Category
AI, gpt, Tech, Astra, OpenAI, AI Releases, GPT Releases
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$11.5K
Volume (24h)
$1.4K
Liquidity
$18.9K
Markets
16
Leading outcome
November 9–November 15 — 20.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 9–November 15, is priced at 20.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts.

Since October 22, 2026, November 9–November 15 has traded between 16.5% and 20.0%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 20.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 9–November 15 is favored at 20.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 9–November 1520¢20.0%+1.5 pts$8407.3%
November 30–December 614¢13.5%+1.0 pts$2.0K17.6%
November 16–November 2212¢12.0%-2.5 pts$8827.7%
November 2–November 810¢9.6%+3.1 pts$4794.2%
No release by January 318¢8.5%+2.0 pts$2.5K21.6%
November 23–November 297¢7.2%+1.6 pts$3242.8%
October 26–November 16¢6.5%-13.0 pts$9077.9%
December 14–December 205¢5.0%+4.0 pts$3523.1%
December 21–December 274¢4.0%-8.5 pts$7016.1%
December 28–January 34¢4.0%+1.5 pts$7306.3%
January 25–January 314¢4.0%-0.9 pts$3763.3%
December 7–December 131¢0.6%+0.1 pts$2652.3%
January 4–January 101¢0.5%+0.2 pts$3212.8%
January 11–January 171¢0.5%+0.3 pts$2972.6%
January 18–January 240¢0.3%-0.1 pts$2592.2%
Prior to October 260¢0.1%—$2772.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$11.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 259 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No259$208
Belated-GlueYes186$37
Past-LaboratoryNo62$50
Skeletal-LiverYes60$12
Squeaky-PolypYes26$5
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationYes20$4
Jealous-BatNo20$16
Hearty-AdYes17$3
Straight-WrinkleYes17$3
Oddball-PoisonYes12$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.8K at 89.9%BUY No — $50 at 88.4%BUY Yes — $46 at 13.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:57 PM ETYesBUY7.0%$2
Oct 24, 02:14 PM ETYesBUY8.0%$4
Oct 24, 08:09 AM ETYesBUY15.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:06 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$43
Oct 24, 08:03 AM ETNoBUY85.0%$10
Oct 23, 11:51 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$1
Oct 23, 07:19 PM ETYesSELL13.0%$1
Oct 23, 07:17 PM ETYesBUY15.0%$1
Oct 23, 07:05 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$4
Oct 23, 06:59 PM ETYesSELL6.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 9–November 15 at 20.0%. Next is November 30–December 6 at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-astra-6pt1-be-released-20261020?via=bro

How much money has been traded on When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released??

$11.5K in total volume, with $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.

When does When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 9–November 15, priced at 20.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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