As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 9–November 15 at 20.0% in When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? — $11.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 9–November 15, is priced at 20.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, November 9–November 15 has traded between 16.5% and 20.0%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 20.0%.
November 9–November 15 is favored at 20.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 9–November 15 | 20¢ | 20.0% | +1.5 pts | $840 | 7.3% |
| November 30–December 6 | 14¢ | 13.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.0K | 17.6% |
| November 16–November 22 | 12¢ | 12.0% | -2.5 pts | $882 | 7.7% |
| November 2–November 8 | 10¢ | 9.6% | +3.1 pts | $479 | 4.2% |
| No release by January 31 | 8¢ | 8.5% | +2.0 pts | $2.5K | 21.6% |
| November 23–November 29 | 7¢ | 7.2% | +1.6 pts | $324 | 2.8% |
| October 26–November 1 | 6¢ | 6.5% | -13.0 pts | $907 | 7.9% |
| December 14–December 20 | 5¢ | 5.0% | +4.0 pts | $352 | 3.1% |
| December 21–December 27 | 4¢ | 4.0% | -8.5 pts | $701 | 6.1% |
| December 28–January 3 | 4¢ | 4.0% | +1.5 pts | $730 | 6.3% |
| January 25–January 31 | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.9 pts | $376 | 3.3% |
| December 7–December 13 | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $265 | 2.3% |
| January 4–January 10 | 1¢ | 0.5% | +0.2 pts | $321 | 2.8% |
| January 11–January 17 | 1¢ | 0.5% | +0.3 pts | $297 | 2.6% |
| January 18–January 24 | 0¢ | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $259 | 2.2% |
| Prior to October 26 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $277 | 2.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 259 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 259 | $208 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 186 | $37 |
| Past-Laboratory | No | 62 | $50 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 60 | $12 |
| Squeaky-Polyp | Yes | 26 | $5 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Jealous-Bat | No | 20 | $16 |
| Hearty-Ad | Yes | 17 | $3 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 17 | $3 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 12 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $43 |
| Oct 24, 08:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 11:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 07:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 07:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 07:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 06:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 9–November 15 at 20.0%. Next is November 30–December 6 at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-astra-6pt1-be-released-20261020?via=bro
$11.5K in total volume, with $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
November 9–November 15, priced at 20.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.