As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2028 at 98.9% in When will the Bitcoin halving occur? — $3.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2028, is priced at 98.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +7.9 pts; past month: +7.9 pts.
Since September 02, 2026, June 30, 2028 has traded between 91.0% and 98.9%. It opened at 91.5% and last traded at 98.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.9% |
June 30, 2028 is favored at 98.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2028 | 99¢ | 98.9% | — | $2.9K | 93.7% |
| March 31, 2028 | 60¢ | 60.5% | — | $198 | 6.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 98¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next Bitcoin halving occurs by the date specified in the title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The next Bitcoin halving refers to the mining of Bitcoin block 1,050,000, the block at which the Bitcoin network’s block subsidy is next scheduled to be reduced by half. The resolution source is mempool.space (https://mempool.space), specifically the “Timestamp” value displayed on the page for block 1,050,000 once it has been mined, converted to Eastern Time. For an example of where the “Timestamp” value is displayed on a block’s page, see this earlier block: https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001e019fb455cb292d5ba5b41ebfad92ab4e0f378e83d25. This market is based solely on the “Timestamp” value displayed on mempool.space for block 1,050,000, not on network propagation or observation times, data from third-party explorers, or unofficial sources. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source, such as another Bitcoin block explorer, or public data consistent with the Bitcoin blockchain.
Resolution source: https://mempool.space
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,486 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peppery-Capital | Yes | 1,486 | $1.5K |
| Interesting-Elite | No | 335 | $4 |
| Pleasing-Elm | No | 206 | $2 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse | No | 200 | $2 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 152 | $2 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 142 | $2 |
| Short-Term-Mitten-Proposal | No | 100 | $1 |
| Fumbling-Mare-Pocketwatch | No | 61 | $1 |
| Smart-Cork | No | 50 | $1 |
| Scary-Neck-Vascular | No | 50 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 07:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 08:28 PM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 07:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 41.0% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 06:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $25 |
| Oct 22, 10:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 02:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 2.2% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 07:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 07:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.9% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 07:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 07:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.1% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2028 at 98.9%. Next is March 31, 2028 at 60.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-bitcoin-halving-occur?via=bro
$3.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://mempool.space.
June 30, 2028, priced at 98.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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