Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No release by November 1 at 97.8% in When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? — $317.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.0K.
Leading outcome
No release by November 1
98%
A 97.8% price implies roughly a 98-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.0 pts7D +7.5 pts30D +73.8 pts
No release by November 197.8%
October 26–November 10.7%
Bid
97¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since August 17, 2026: 10.5% – 97.7% · Opened at 39.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
Category
AI, Tech, Gemini, google, Gemini Pro, AI Releases
Scheduled end
November 01, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$317.9K
Volume (24h)
$1.0K
Liquidity
$10.2K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
No release by November 1 — 97.8%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No release by November 1, is priced at 97.8%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: +7.5 pts; past month: +73.8 pts.

Since August 17, 2026, No release by November 1 has traded between 10.5% and 97.7%. It opened at 39.0% and last traded at 97.7%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202689.8%
Oct 16, 202689.6%
Oct 18, 202690.5%
Oct 19, 202697.5%
Oct 20, 202696.7%
Oct 23, 202695.8%
Oct 24, 202697.7%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No release by November 1 is favored at 97.8%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No release by November 198¢97.8%+2.0 pts$169.6K53.3%
October 26–November 11¢0.7%-2.8 pts$12.3K3.9%
October 19–October 250¢0.2%-0.3 pts$20.9K6.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$317.9K has been traded on this event in total, $1.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,205 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sparse-CossetYes17,205$16.8K
0xa5ef39c3…No10,129$228
Sparse-CookieNo7,875$177
Prudent-Bracelet-ProceedingsYes3,655$3.6K
Golden-UnemploymentYes2,703$2.6K
Flamboyant-WarmingNo2,544$57
Ragged-ThongsNo1,446$33
Known-UseNo1,346$30
Broken-HermitNo1,044$23
Grim-GarageNo816$18

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $931 at 95.5%BUY Yes — $590 at 97.8%SELL Yes — $280 at 96.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:54 PM ETNoBUY99.8%$14
Oct 24, 12:59 PM ETYesBUY98.3%$20
Oct 24, 12:59 PM ETYesSELL0.9%$0
Oct 24, 06:17 AM ETNoBUY2.5%$2
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$18
Oct 24, 03:44 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$15
Oct 24, 03:02 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$12
Oct 23, 11:13 PM ETYesBUY98.7%$10
Oct 23, 11:12 PM ETYesBUY97.8%$590
Oct 23, 11:12 PM ETNoBUY99.7%$83

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No release by November 1 at 97.8%. Next is October 26–November 1 at 0.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-next-google-gemini-pro-model-be-released-20260817144359068?via=bro

How much money has been traded on When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released??

$317.9K in total volume, with $1.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?, according to Polymarket traders?

No release by November 1, priced at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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