As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Japan at 42.0% in Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October? — $8.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Japan, is priced at 42.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.5 pts; past week: -29.0 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, Japan has traded between 28.0% and 57.0%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 44.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 44.0% |
Japan is favored at 42.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 42¢ | 42.0% | +7.5 pts | $908 | 10.7% |
| Indonesia | 27¢ | 27.0% | +3.5 pts | $2.1K | 25.1% |
| Chile | 24¢ | 24.0% | +8.5 pts | $905 | 10.6% |
| Philippines | 22¢ | 22.5% | +2.5 pts | $850 | 10.0% |
| Mexico | 20¢ | 20.5% | +3.0 pts | $1.9K | 22.4% |
| United States | 16¢ | 16.5% | -6.0 pts | $807 | 9.5% |
| Peru | 11¢ | 11.0% | -1.0 pts | $985 | 11.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 60¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.5K has been traded on this event in total, $472 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 78 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3ff744e9… | No | 78 | $45 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 57 | $24 |
| Mealy-Disparity | Yes | 46 | $19 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 40 | $17 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | No | 40 | $23 |
| Ancient-Blackberry | No | 25 | $15 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Known-Use | No | 13 | $8 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 12 | $5 |
| Careful-Neologism | No | 10 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 09:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 06:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 06:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:09 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 02:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 02:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Japan at 42.0%. Next is Indonesia at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-magnitude-earthquake-occur-by-end-of-october-20260928t160000000z?via=bro
$8.5K in total volume, with $472 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Japan, priced at 42.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.