Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Japan at 42.0% in Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October? — $8.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $472.
Leading outcome
Japan
42%
A 42.0% price implies roughly a 42-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +7.5 pts7D −29.0 pts
Japan42.0%
Indonesia27.0%
Bid
12¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
60¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 30, 2026: 28.0% – 57.0% · Opened at 51.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
Category
Peru, Japan, Mexico, Weather, climate, Indonesia, Recurring, Earthquakes, Philippines, United States
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$8.5K
Volume (24h)
$472
Liquidity
$1.5K
Markets
7
Leading outcome
Japan — 42.0%
Resolution source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Japan, is priced at 42.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.5 pts; past week: -29.0 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, Japan has traded between 28.0% and 57.0%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 44.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202657.0%
Oct 16, 202653.0%
Oct 18, 202654.0%
Oct 19, 202646.5%
Oct 20, 202639.5%
Oct 23, 202634.5%
Oct 24, 202644.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Japan is favored at 42.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Japan42¢42.0%+7.5 pts$90810.7%
Indonesia27¢27.0%+3.5 pts$2.1K25.1%
Chile24¢24.0%+8.5 pts$90510.6%
Philippines22¢22.5%+2.5 pts$85010.0%
Mexico20¢20.5%+3.0 pts$1.9K22.4%
United States16¢16.5%-6.0 pts$8079.5%
Peru11¢11.0%-1.0 pts$98511.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 60¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$8.5K has been traded on this event in total, $472 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 78 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0x3ff744e9…No78$45
Belated-GlueYes57$24
Mealy-DisparityYes46$19
Gleaming-HandlebarYes40$17
Gripping-AbolishmentNo40$23
Ancient-BlackberryNo25$15
Required-HornYes20$8
Known-UseNo13$8
Oddball-PoisonYes12$5
Careful-NeologismNo10$6

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $76 at 76.2%BUY No — $60 at 80.0%BUY No — $32 at 69.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:54 PM ETNoSELL78.0%$19
Oct 24, 09:17 AM ETNoSELL74.0%$18
Oct 24, 08:54 AM ETNoBUY76.0%$30
Oct 24, 06:50 AM ETNoSELL75.0%$15
Oct 24, 06:37 AM ETNoBUY69.0%$32
Oct 24, 02:37 AM ETNoBUY74.0%$7
Oct 24, 02:09 AM ETYesBUY26.0%$5
Oct 24, 02:09 AM ETNoSELL75.0%$30
Oct 24, 02:09 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$20
Oct 24, 02:09 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Japan at 42.0%. Next is Indonesia at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-magnitude-earthquake-occur-by-end-of-october-20260928t160000000z?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October??

$8.5K in total volume, with $472 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.

When does Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

What is the most likely outcome of Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?, according to Polymarket traders?

Japan, priced at 42.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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