As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Hawaii at 8.0% in Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season? — $42.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Hawaii, is priced at 8.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -11.5 pts.
Since August 18, 2026, Hawaii has traded between 7.5% and 49.0%. It opened at 8.0% and last traded at 8.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 7.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 8.0% |
Hawaii is favored at 8.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 8¢ | 8.0% | +0.5 pts | $4.6K | 10.8% |
| Louisiana | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $2.2K | 5.1% |
| Rhode Island | 5¢ | 5.3% | +1.3 pts | $2.1K | 4.9% |
| Alabama | 5¢ | 5.3% | -0.2 pts | $3.6K | 8.5% |
| North Carolina | 5¢ | 5.3% | — | $2.7K | 6.5% |
| New Jersey | 5¢ | 4.9% | — | $730 | 1.7% |
| South Carolina | 4¢ | 4.2% | -0.1 pts | $1.3K | 3.1% |
| Mississippi | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.1K | 2.7% |
| Maryland | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.8K | 4.2% |
| Texas | 3¢ | 3.5% | — | $946 | 2.2% |
| Virginia | 3¢ | 3.3% | +0.4 pts | $2.0K | 4.7% |
| New York | 3¢ | 3.1% | — | $2.4K | 5.7% |
| Connecticut | 3¢ | 2.6% | — | $462 | 1.1% |
| Maine | 2¢ | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K | 6.1% |
| Delaware | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $2.1K | 5.0% |
| New Hampshire | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $2.0K | 4.7% |
| Massachusetts | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $3.2K | 7.6% |
| Georgia | 2¢ | 1.6% | +0.1 pts | $2.2K | 5.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$42.1K has been traded on this event in total, $231 of it in the last 24 hours, across 18 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes". Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 390 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-Eaglet | No | 390 | $359 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 357 | $29 |
| Lean-Trolley | No | 305 | $281 |
| Unsung-Climb | Yes | 242 | $19 |
| Phony-Hydroxyl | Yes | 121 | $10 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | No | 119 | $109 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 94 | $7 |
| Mediocre-Finger | No | 90 | $83 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 79 | $6 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 64 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 12:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 12:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.3% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 11:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.2% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 03:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.7% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 03:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $37 |
| Oct 19, 03:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 19, 03:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $82 |
| Oct 15, 02:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $32 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Hawaii at 8.0%. Next is Louisiana at 6.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-during-the-2026-hurricane-season?via=bro
$42.1K in total volume, with $231 traded in the last 24 hours across 18 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
Hawaii, priced at 8.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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