Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Hawaii at 8.0% in Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season? — $42.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $231.
Leading outcome
Hawaii
8%
A 8.0% price implies roughly a 8-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.5 pts7D −2.0 pts30D −11.5 pts
Hawaii8.0%
Louisiana6.5%
Bid
7¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 18, 2026: 7.5% – 49.0% · Opened at 8.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Category
Weather, climate, hurricane, Hurricanes, Hurricane Season, Natural Disaster, Weather & Science
Scheduled end
December 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$42.1K
Volume (24h)
$231
Liquidity
$24.8K
Markets
18
Leading outcome
Hawaii — 8.0%
Resolution source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Hawaii, is priced at 8.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -11.5 pts.

Since August 18, 2026, Hawaii has traded between 7.5% and 49.0%. It opened at 8.0% and last traded at 8.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202610.0%
Oct 18, 202610.0%
Oct 19, 20268.0%
Oct 20, 20268.0%
Oct 22, 20268.0%
Oct 23, 20267.5%
Oct 24, 20268.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Hawaii is favored at 8.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Hawaii8¢8.0%+0.5 pts$4.6K10.8%
Louisiana6¢6.5%—$2.2K5.1%
Rhode Island5¢5.3%+1.3 pts$2.1K4.9%
Alabama5¢5.3%-0.2 pts$3.6K8.5%
North Carolina5¢5.3%—$2.7K6.5%
New Jersey5¢4.9%—$7301.7%
South Carolina4¢4.2%-0.1 pts$1.3K3.1%
Mississippi4¢4.0%-0.1 pts$1.1K2.7%
Maryland4¢3.8%+0.1 pts$1.8K4.2%
Texas3¢3.5%—$9462.2%
Virginia3¢3.3%+0.4 pts$2.0K4.7%
New York3¢3.1%—$2.4K5.7%
Connecticut3¢2.6%—$4621.1%
Maine2¢2.5%-0.1 pts$2.6K6.1%
Delaware2¢2.2%—$2.1K5.0%
New Hampshire2¢2.1%—$2.0K4.7%
Massachusetts2¢1.8%—$3.2K7.6%
Georgia2¢1.6%+0.1 pts$2.2K5.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$42.1K has been traded on this event in total, $231 of it in the last 24 hours, across 18 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes". Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 390 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Fixed-EagletNo390$359
Belated-GlueYes357$29
Lean-TrolleyNo305$281
Unsung-ClimbYes242$19
Phony-HydroxylYes121$10
Wan-GymnasticsNo119$109
Grim-GarageYes94$7
Mediocre-FingerNo90$83
Bouncy-SavingYes79$6
Straight-HuntingYes64$5

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $271 at 90.6%BUY No — $98 at 86.0%BUY No — $98 at 89.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:10 PM ETNoBUY93.0%$7
Oct 24, 12:36 AM ETNoSELL91.0%$18
Oct 24, 12:36 AM ETYesBUY9.0%$4
Oct 24, 12:36 AM ETYesBUY8.3%$10
Oct 20, 11:19 AM ETYesBUY6.2%$1
Oct 19, 03:10 PM ETYesSELL7.7%$2
Oct 19, 03:10 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$37
Oct 19, 03:10 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$18
Oct 19, 03:10 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$82
Oct 15, 02:16 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$32

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Hawaii at 8.0%. Next is Louisiana at 6.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-during-the-2026-hurricane-season?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season??

$42.1K in total volume, with $231 traded in the last 24 hours across 18 markets.

When does Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

What is the most likely outcome of Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?, according to Polymarket traders?

Hawaii, priced at 8.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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