Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price UAE at 67.0% in Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? — $72.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.1K.
Leading outcome
UAE
67%
A 67.0% price implies roughly a 67-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.5 pts7D +25.5 pts
UAE67.0%
Switzerland19.1%
Bid
65¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 29, 2026: 32.5% – 67.5% · Opened at 37.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
Category
World, putin, Russia, Ukraine, Politics, zelenskyy, Peace Deal, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$72.0K
Volume (24h)
$4.1K
Liquidity
$367.1K
Markets
29
Leading outcome
UAE — 67.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, UAE, is priced at 67.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +25.5 pts.

Since September 29, 2026, UAE has traded between 32.5% and 67.5%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 67.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202640.5%
Oct 15, 202636.0%
Oct 16, 202632.5%
Oct 18, 202643.0%
Oct 19, 202644.5%
Oct 20, 202636.5%
Oct 24, 202667.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

UAE is favored at 67.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
UAE67¢67.0%+2.5 pts$30.1K41.7%
Switzerland19¢19.1%+3.2 pts$3.5K4.8%
No Talks by December 31, 20278¢8.0%+3.0 pts$13.1K18.2%
Turkey4¢3.5%-5.9 pts$6.2K8.6%
USA1¢1.5%+0.5 pts$3.8K5.3%
Saudi Arabia1¢1.0%—$1.1K1.6%
Other - Europe1¢1.0%—$9431.3%
Other1¢1.0%-0.1 pts$8571.2%
Germany1¢0.9%-0.1 pts$4690.7%
Other - Middle East/North Africa1¢0.5%—$3170.4%
Hungary0¢0.5%—$2880.4%
Qatar0¢0.5%—$1.2K1.7%
India0¢0.5%-0.1 pts$2.0K2.8%
Italy0¢0.4%—$5340.7%
Austria0¢0.4%—$3350.5%
Slovakia0¢0.4%—$2900.4%
Kazakhstan0¢0.4%—$3960.5%
Azerbaijan0¢0.4%—$2150.3%
Egypt0¢0.4%—$1660.2%
Brazil0¢0.4%—$2160.3%
South Africa0¢0.4%—$1660.2%
Serbia0¢0.4%—$1580.2%
Russia0¢0.4%-0.2 pts$7991.1%
Finland0¢0.4%—$4860.7%
Belarus0¢0.4%—$5750.8%
Poland0¢0.2%—$4850.7%
China0¢0.2%—$1.9K2.6%
Ukraine0¢0.1%—$7391.0%
Vatican City0¢0.1%—$7601.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 65¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$72.0K has been traded on this event in total, $4.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 29 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,075 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Capital-EndodermNo4,075$1.3K
Quarrelsome-FilthYes3,375$2.3K
Equal-BrassYes3,066$2.1K
0xa5ef39c3…No2,359$779
Unsung-ClimbNo779$257
Bitter-CartoonYes551$369
Ready-ResourceYes343$230
Real-FleshNo265$87
Belated-GlueNo184$61
Little-AnguishYes162$108

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $339 at 98.7%BUY No — $327 at 99.0%BUY No — $323 at 94.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:15 PM ETYesBUY8.5%$7
Oct 24, 06:31 PM ETNoBUY32.0%$63
Oct 24, 06:01 PM ETNoBUY32.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:58 AM ETYesBUY67.2%$291
Oct 24, 11:58 AM ETYesBUY69.0%$34
Oct 24, 11:58 AM ETNoBUY33.0%$16
Oct 24, 09:43 AM ETYesBUY60.0%$5
Oct 24, 09:12 AM ETNoBUY37.8%$100
Oct 24, 09:12 AM ETNoBUY39.0%$20
Oct 24, 07:40 AM ETYesSELL66.0%$9

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is UAE at 67.0%. Next is Switzerland at 19.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place??

$72.0K in total volume, with $4.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 29 markets.

When does Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?, according to Polymarket traders?

UAE, priced at 67.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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