As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price UAE at 67.0% in Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? — $72.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, UAE, is priced at 67.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +25.5 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, UAE has traded between 32.5% and 67.5%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 67.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 36.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 67.5% |
UAE is favored at 67.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 67¢ | 67.0% | +2.5 pts | $30.1K | 41.7% |
| Switzerland | 19¢ | 19.1% | +3.2 pts | $3.5K | 4.8% |
| No Talks by December 31, 2027 | 8¢ | 8.0% | +3.0 pts | $13.1K | 18.2% |
| Turkey | 4¢ | 3.5% | -5.9 pts | $6.2K | 8.6% |
| USA | 1¢ | 1.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.8K | 5.3% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $1.1K | 1.6% |
| Other - Europe | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $943 | 1.3% |
| Other | 1¢ | 1.0% | -0.1 pts | $857 | 1.2% |
| Germany | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $469 | 0.7% |
| Other - Middle East/North Africa | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $317 | 0.4% |
| Hungary | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $288 | 0.4% |
| Qatar | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $1.2K | 1.7% |
| India | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $2.0K | 2.8% |
| Italy | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $534 | 0.7% |
| Austria | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $335 | 0.5% |
| Slovakia | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $290 | 0.4% |
| Kazakhstan | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $396 | 0.5% |
| Azerbaijan | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $215 | 0.3% |
| Egypt | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $166 | 0.2% |
| Brazil | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $216 | 0.3% |
| South Africa | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $166 | 0.2% |
| Serbia | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $158 | 0.2% |
| Russia | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.2 pts | $799 | 1.1% |
| Finland | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $486 | 0.7% |
| Belarus | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $575 | 0.8% |
| Poland | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $485 | 0.7% |
| China | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.9K | 2.6% |
| Ukraine | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $739 | 1.0% |
| Vatican City | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $760 | 1.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 65¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$72.0K has been traded on this event in total, $4.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 29 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,075 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 4,075 | $1.3K |
| Quarrelsome-Filth | Yes | 3,375 | $2.3K |
| Equal-Brass | Yes | 3,066 | $2.1K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,359 | $779 |
| Unsung-Climb | No | 779 | $257 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | Yes | 551 | $369 |
| Ready-Resource | Yes | 343 | $230 |
| Real-Flesh | No | 265 | $87 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 184 | $61 |
| Little-Anguish | Yes | 162 | $108 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.5% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $63 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.2% | $291 |
| Oct 24, 11:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 11:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 33.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 09:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 37.8% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 09:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is UAE at 67.0%. Next is Switzerland at 19.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place?via=bro
$72.0K in total volume, with $4.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 29 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
UAE, priced at 67.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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