Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Meeting by December 31 at 64.0% in Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...? — $173.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $187.
Leading outcome
No Meeting by December 31
64%
A 64.0% price implies roughly a 64-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts30D +34.5 pts
No Meeting by December 3164.0%
Qatar12.4%
Bid
63¢
Ask
65¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 22, 2026: 13.0% – 65.5% · Opened at 13.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
Category
Iran, Trump, Vance, Nuclear, US-Iran, Khamenei, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, nuclear deal, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Scheduled end
December 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$173.2K
Volume (24h)
$187
Liquidity
$271.8K
Markets
19
Leading outcome
No Meeting by December 31 — 64.0%
Resolution source
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No Meeting by December 31, is priced at 64.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past month: +34.5 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, No Meeting by December 31 has traded between 13.0% and 65.5%. It opened at 13.0% and last traded at 64.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202665.5%
Oct 17, 202664.0%
Oct 18, 202665.0%
Oct 19, 202659.0%
Oct 20, 202659.0%
Oct 22, 202663.0%
Oct 23, 202664.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No Meeting by December 31 is favored at 64.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No Meeting by December 3164¢64.0%-0.5 pts$68.5K39.5%
Qatar12¢12.4%-0.7 pts$16.6K9.6%
Switzerland7¢6.8%+0.9 pts$3.2K1.8%
Austria5¢4.7%+0.1 pts$3.0K1.8%
Oman4¢4.3%+0.1 pts$3.0K1.7%
UAE4¢3.9%-0.1 pts$3.0K1.7%
Italy3¢3.5%+1.0 pts$3.4K2.0%
Other3¢3.0%-0.7 pts$2.8K1.6%
Pakistan3¢2.8%+0.1 pts$3.1K1.8%
Turkey3¢2.6%—$3.2K1.8%
USA2¢2.1%+0.1 pts$35.9K20.7%
Other - Europe2¢1.9%+0.1 pts$3.7K2.2%
Saudi Arabia2¢1.8%—$2.8K1.6%
Russia2¢1.5%+0.1 pts$3.4K2.0%
Other - Middle East/North Africa1¢1.0%—$2.8K1.6%
Iran1¢0.6%—$3.4K1.9%
Iraq0¢0.3%—$3.7K2.1%
Egypt0¢0.1%—$3.6K2.1%
Kazakhstan0¢0.1%—$4.0K2.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$173.2K has been traded on this event in total, $187 of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,016 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Villainous-VolatilityYes8,016$5.1K
0xa5ef39c3…No7,447$2.7K
Tasty-Hatbox-GuiltNo7,332$2.6K
Whopping-ChiffonierYes1,379$883
Prudent-Bracelet-ProceedingsYes1,280$819
Limited-SeepYes1,134$726
Pleased-HorrorYes1,009$646
Yellowish-WitYes990$634
Monumental-InjusticeNo570$205
Only-SpiritualityYes504$323

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $134 at 58.4%BUY Yes — $122 at 61.0%BUY Yes — $95 at 61.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$7
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$7
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$7
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$7
Oct 23, 11:27 PM ETNoSELL97.5%$0
Oct 23, 11:25 PM ETNoSELL35.0%$0
Oct 23, 08:09 PM ETYesSELL63.1%$31
Oct 23, 02:44 PM ETYesSELL1.5%$1
Oct 23, 06:52 AM ETYesBUY65.0%$3
Oct 23, 04:33 AM ETNoSELL86.5%$18

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Meeting by December 31 at 64.0%. Next is Qatar at 12.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-take-placeptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...??

$173.2K in total volume, with $187 traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.

When does Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks.

What is the most likely outcome of Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?, according to Polymarket traders?

No Meeting by December 31, priced at 64.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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