As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Meeting by December 31 at 64.0% in Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...? — $173.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Meeting by December 31, is priced at 64.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past month: +34.5 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, No Meeting by December 31 has traded between 13.0% and 65.5%. It opened at 13.0% and last traded at 64.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 64.5% |
No Meeting by December 31 is favored at 64.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Meeting by December 31 | 64¢ | 64.0% | -0.5 pts | $68.5K | 39.5% |
| Qatar | 12¢ | 12.4% | -0.7 pts | $16.6K | 9.6% |
| Switzerland | 7¢ | 6.8% | +0.9 pts | $3.2K | 1.8% |
| Austria | 5¢ | 4.7% | +0.1 pts | $3.0K | 1.8% |
| Oman | 4¢ | 4.3% | +0.1 pts | $3.0K | 1.7% |
| UAE | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.1 pts | $3.0K | 1.7% |
| Italy | 3¢ | 3.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.4K | 2.0% |
| Other | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.7 pts | $2.8K | 1.6% |
| Pakistan | 3¢ | 2.8% | +0.1 pts | $3.1K | 1.8% |
| Turkey | 3¢ | 2.6% | — | $3.2K | 1.8% |
| USA | 2¢ | 2.1% | +0.1 pts | $35.9K | 20.7% |
| Other - Europe | 2¢ | 1.9% | +0.1 pts | $3.7K | 2.2% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $2.8K | 1.6% |
| Russia | 2¢ | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $3.4K | 2.0% |
| Other - Middle East/North Africa | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $2.8K | 1.6% |
| Iran | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $3.4K | 1.9% |
| Iraq | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $3.7K | 2.1% |
| Egypt | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.6K | 2.1% |
| Kazakhstan | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.0K | 2.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$173.2K has been traded on this event in total, $187 of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,016 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villainous-Volatility | Yes | 8,016 | $5.1K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 7,447 | $2.7K |
| Tasty-Hatbox-Guilt | No | 7,332 | $2.6K |
| Whopping-Chiffonier | Yes | 1,379 | $883 |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings | Yes | 1,280 | $819 |
| Limited-Seep | Yes | 1,134 | $726 |
| Pleased-Horror | Yes | 1,009 | $646 |
| Yellowish-Wit | Yes | 990 | $634 |
| Monumental-Injustice | No | 570 | $205 |
| Only-Spirituality | Yes | 504 | $323 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 11:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 35.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 08:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.1% | $31 |
| Oct 23, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 04:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.5% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Meeting by December 31 at 64.0%. Next is Qatar at 12.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-take-placeptptpt?via=bro
$173.2K in total volume, with $187 traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks.
No Meeting by December 31, priced at 64.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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