Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Meta at 14.5% in Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026? — $5.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $20.
Leading outcome
Meta
14%
A 14.5% price implies roughly a 14-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
Meta14.5%
Amazon14.0%
Bid
2¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
25¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?
Category
AI, Tech, Big Tech, AI Safety, AI Regulation
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$5.8K
Volume (24h)
$20
Liquidity
$4.2K
Markets
15
Leading outcome
Meta — 14.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Meta is favored at 14.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Meta14¢14.5%—$00.0%
Amazon14¢14.0%—$00.0%
DeepSeek14¢14.0%—$00.0%
Alibaba14¢14.0%—$00.0%
Moonshot14¢14.0%—$00.0%
ByteDance14¢14.0%—$00.0%
Meituan14¢14.0%—$00.0%
Mistral14¢13.5%—$00.0%
Microsoft13¢13.0%—$00.0%
Z.ai13¢13.0%—$00.0%
Baidu13¢13.0%—$00.0%
OpenAI7¢6.6%-0.7 pts$1.6K28.1%
Anthropic6¢5.5%—$1.4K24.9%
Google5¢4.7%-0.1 pts$1.7K29.7%
SpaceXAI3¢3.0%—$99917.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 25¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$5.8K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause all training of AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full training pause means the company halts all training for its AI models, including pre-training, fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning, across the company. Pauses limited to particular models, training methods, training environments, or teams will not qualify. A full pause of any stated duration qualifies. Continued deployment or serving of existing models does not prevent a pause from qualifying. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that all training has been or will be paused. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. Statements that describe slowing development, pausing some training, or considering a pause will not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. … (condensed)

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $414 at 89.6%BUY No — $118 at 91.0%BUY No — $100 at 90.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETNoSELL92.7%$19
Oct 23, 03:01 AM ETYesBUY4.3%$1
Oct 18, 02:58 PM ETNoSELL90.9%$18
Oct 18, 02:36 PM ETYesSELL4.1%$1
Oct 18, 12:35 PM ETYesSELL5.2%$1
Oct 18, 12:35 PM ETYesSELL5.2%$1
Oct 16, 06:01 PM ETNoBUY92.7%$1
Oct 16, 12:23 AM ETNoSELL90.3%$18
Oct 16, 12:16 AM ETNoSELL92.3%$18
Oct 16, 12:15 AM ETYesBUY7.3%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Meta at 14.5%. Next is Amazon at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-ai-labs-announce-a-full-training-pause-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026??

$5.8K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.

When does Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

Meta, priced at 14.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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