Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mistral at 11.9% in Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31? — $20.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $127.
Leading outcome
Mistral
12%
A 11.9% price implies roughly a 12-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.8 pts7D +4.7 pts30D +5.5 pts
Mistral11.9%
Alibaba6.9%
Bid
6¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
12¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 15, 2026: 2.9% – 29.0% · Opened at 29.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?
Category
AI, Tech, Big Tech, AI Regulation, AI Safety
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$20.8K
Volume (24h)
$127
Liquidity
$5.0K
Markets
14
Leading outcome
Mistral — 11.9%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Mistral, is priced at 11.9%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: +4.7 pts; past month: +5.5 pts.

Since September 15, 2026, Mistral has traded between 2.9% and 29.0%. It opened at 29.0% and last traded at 11.8%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 20266.8%
Oct 18, 20266.9%
Oct 19, 20266.8%
Oct 20, 20264.7%
Oct 22, 202612.0%
Oct 23, 202611.7%
Oct 24, 202611.8%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Mistral is favored at 11.9%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Mistral12¢11.9%+0.8 pts$7413.6%
Alibaba7¢6.9%-0.1 pts$5902.8%
Google6¢5.5%-0.5 pts$1.1K5.1%
Moonshot4¢3.9%+1.3 pts$7233.5%
SpaceXAI3¢3.1%-0.3 pts$1.6K7.8%
Meta3¢3.1%+1.2 pts$2.0K9.4%
Z.ai3¢2.9%—$6213.0%
Anthropic3¢2.9%-0.8 pts$3.9K18.7%
DeepSeek3¢2.8%-0.1 pts$8554.1%
ByteDance3¢2.6%—$9504.6%
Amazon2¢2.3%—$2.0K9.7%
Meituan2¢1.7%—$5342.6%
Baidu2¢1.5%—$5072.4%
Microsoft1¢1.5%—$1.9K8.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 18¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$20.8K has been traded on this event in total, $127 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 96 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes96$11
Buoyant-NurtureNo71$62
Far-PlanNo62$55
Grim-GarageYes43$5
Well-Informed-IschemiaNo41$36
Standard-JackalYes30$4
Cool-PattypanNo23$20
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationYes20$2
Serpentine-IllusionYes20$2
Known-UseNo10$9

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $593 at 90.6%BUY No — $300 at 93.5%BUY No — $200 at 60.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:09 PM ETYesSELL1.0%$0
Oct 23, 04:18 PM ETYesBUY2.7%$0
Oct 23, 01:40 PM ETYesSELL5.0%$0
Oct 23, 01:36 PM ETNoBUY97.5%$12
Oct 23, 01:36 PM ETNoBUY97.3%$185
Oct 23, 01:35 PM ETYesSELL8.0%$8
Oct 23, 01:35 PM ETNoBUY90.6%$593
Oct 23, 01:35 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$18
Oct 22, 01:28 AM ETNoBUY80.5%$169
Oct 22, 01:28 AM ETNoBUY78.0%$16

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mistral at 11.9%. Next is Alibaba at 6.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-ai-labs-announce-a-training-pause-by-october-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31??

$20.8K in total volume, with $127 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.

When does Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

Mistral, priced at 11.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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