As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mistral at 11.9% in Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31? — $20.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mistral, is priced at 11.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: +4.7 pts; past month: +5.5 pts.
Since September 15, 2026, Mistral has traded between 2.9% and 29.0%. It opened at 29.0% and last traded at 11.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 6.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 6.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 11.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 11.8% |
Mistral is favored at 11.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mistral | 12¢ | 11.9% | +0.8 pts | $741 | 3.6% |
| Alibaba | 7¢ | 6.9% | -0.1 pts | $590 | 2.8% |
| 6¢ | 5.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.1K | 5.1% | |
| Moonshot | 4¢ | 3.9% | +1.3 pts | $723 | 3.5% |
| SpaceXAI | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.3 pts | $1.6K | 7.8% |
| Meta | 3¢ | 3.1% | +1.2 pts | $2.0K | 9.4% |
| Z.ai | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $621 | 3.0% |
| Anthropic | 3¢ | 2.9% | -0.8 pts | $3.9K | 18.7% |
| DeepSeek | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.1 pts | $855 | 4.1% |
| ByteDance | 3¢ | 2.6% | — | $950 | 4.6% |
| Amazon | 2¢ | 2.3% | — | $2.0K | 9.7% |
| Meituan | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $534 | 2.6% |
| Baidu | 2¢ | 1.5% | — | $507 | 2.4% |
| Microsoft | 1¢ | 1.5% | — | $1.9K | 8.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 18¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$20.8K has been traded on this event in total, $127 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 96 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 96 | $11 |
| Buoyant-Nurture | No | 71 | $62 |
| Far-Plan | No | 62 | $55 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 43 | $5 |
| Well-Informed-Ischemia | No | 41 | $36 |
| Standard-Jackal | Yes | 30 | $4 |
| Cool-Pattypan | No | 23 | $20 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 20 | $2 |
| Serpentine-Illusion | Yes | 20 | $2 |
| Known-Use | No | 10 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 01:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 01:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.5% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 01:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.3% | $185 |
| Oct 23, 01:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 01:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.6% | $593 |
| Oct 23, 01:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 01:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.5% | $169 |
| Oct 22, 01:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mistral at 11.9%. Next is Alibaba at 6.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-ai-labs-announce-a-training-pause-by-october-31?via=bro
$20.8K in total volume, with $127 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Mistral, priced at 11.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.