Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Microsoft at 11.5% in Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31? — $102.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $143.
Leading outcome
Microsoft
12%
A 11.5% price implies roughly a 12-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −0.5 pts30D −13.0 pts
Microsoft11.5%
Google11.2%
Bid
10¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 14, 2026: 7.0% – 36.5% · Opened at 36.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
Category
AI, Tech, Big Tech, AI Regulation, AI Safety
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$102.9K
Volume (24h)
$143
Liquidity
$5.4K
Markets
13
Leading outcome
Microsoft — 11.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Microsoft, is priced at 11.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -13.0 pts.

Since September 14, 2026, Microsoft has traded between 7.0% and 36.5%. It opened at 36.5% and last traded at 11.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202615.0%
Oct 18, 202613.0%
Oct 19, 202611.5%
Oct 20, 202612.0%
Oct 22, 202612.5%
Oct 23, 202612.0%
Oct 24, 202611.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Microsoft is favored at 11.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Microsoft12¢11.5%-0.5 pts$10.5K10.2%
Google11¢11.2%+0.1 pts$16.7K16.2%
SpaceXAI4¢4.5%-2.0 pts$8.1K7.9%
DeepSeek4¢4.5%-0.5 pts$4.3K4.2%
Meituan4¢4.4%+1.4 pts$1.6K1.5%
Meta4¢3.7%+0.8 pts$6.9K6.7%
Amazon3¢2.9%+0.1 pts$11.3K11.0%
Moonshot3¢2.8%—$13.5K13.1%
Z.ai2¢2.4%+0.2 pts$3.4K3.3%
Alibaba1¢1.5%+1.0 pts$6.8K6.6%
Baidu1¢1.5%+0.4 pts$1.9K1.9%
Mistral1¢1.3%+0.3 pts$12.8K12.4%
ByteDance1¢1.1%—$5.1K4.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$102.9K has been traded on this event in total, $143 of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 338 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Gleaming-HandlebarYes338$39
Snappy-RoosterYes289$33
Verifiable-ObstacleNo284$251
Barren-ExpectancyNo250$221
Submissive-MileageNo193$171
Few-PreventionYes175$20
Natural-VacationNo138$122
0x61b56453…No98$87
Belated-GlueNo81$72
Skeletal-LiverNo76$67

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $51 at 8.4%BUY No — $50 at 70.8%SELL No — $47 at 94.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 20, 07:03 PM ETNoSELL87.5%$17
Oct 20, 07:03 PM ETNoSELL89.3%$18
Oct 20, 07:03 PM ETNoSELL90.3%$39
Oct 20, 01:54 PM ETNoSELL90.3%$1
Oct 16, 06:17 PM ETYesSELL1.6%$1
Oct 15, 12:50 AM ETNoSELL94.1%$47
Oct 14, 07:05 PM ETNoSELL98.2%$27
Oct 14, 02:52 PM ETYesSELL4.0%$1
Oct 14, 11:52 AM ETYesSELL7.6%$10
Oct 14, 12:13 AM ETYesSELL1.6%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Microsoft at 11.5%. Next is Google at 11.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-ai-labs-commit-to-third-party-vetting-by-october-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31??

$102.9K in total volume, with $143 traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.

When does Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

Microsoft, priced at 11.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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