As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Microsoft at 11.5% in Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31? — $102.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Microsoft, is priced at 11.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -13.0 pts.
Since September 14, 2026, Microsoft has traded between 7.0% and 36.5%. It opened at 36.5% and last traded at 11.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 11.5% |
Microsoft is favored at 11.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | 12¢ | 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $10.5K | 10.2% |
| 11¢ | 11.2% | +0.1 pts | $16.7K | 16.2% | |
| SpaceXAI | 4¢ | 4.5% | -2.0 pts | $8.1K | 7.9% |
| DeepSeek | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.5 pts | $4.3K | 4.2% |
| Meituan | 4¢ | 4.4% | +1.4 pts | $1.6K | 1.5% |
| Meta | 4¢ | 3.7% | +0.8 pts | $6.9K | 6.7% |
| Amazon | 3¢ | 2.9% | +0.1 pts | $11.3K | 11.0% |
| Moonshot | 3¢ | 2.8% | — | $13.5K | 13.1% |
| Z.ai | 2¢ | 2.4% | +0.2 pts | $3.4K | 3.3% |
| Alibaba | 1¢ | 1.5% | +1.0 pts | $6.8K | 6.6% |
| Baidu | 1¢ | 1.5% | +0.4 pts | $1.9K | 1.9% |
| Mistral | 1¢ | 1.3% | +0.3 pts | $12.8K | 12.4% |
| ByteDance | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $5.1K | 4.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$102.9K has been traded on this event in total, $143 of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 338 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 338 | $39 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 289 | $33 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 284 | $251 |
| Barren-Expectancy | No | 250 | $221 |
| Submissive-Mileage | No | 193 | $171 |
| Few-Prevention | Yes | 175 | $20 |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 138 | $122 |
| 0x61b56453… | No | 98 | $87 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 81 | $72 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 76 | $67 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 07:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.5% | $17 |
| Oct 20, 07:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.3% | $18 |
| Oct 20, 07:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.3% | $39 |
| Oct 20, 01:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.3% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 06:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.6% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 12:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.1% | $47 |
| Oct 14, 07:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $27 |
| Oct 14, 02:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 11:52 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.6% | $10 |
| Oct 14, 12:13 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.6% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Microsoft at 11.5%. Next is Google at 11.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-ai-labs-commit-to-third-party-vetting-by-october-31?via=bro
$102.9K in total volume, with $143 traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Microsoft, priced at 11.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.