Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which artists will release a new song in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price JAY-Z at 38.0% in Which artists will release a new song in 2026? — $148.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $187.
Leading outcome
JAY-Z
38%
A 38.0% price implies roughly a 38-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.5 pts7D +6.5 pts30D −24.0 pts
JAY-Z38.0%
Nicki Minaj30.4%
Bid
36¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since November 12, 2025: 24.0% – 93.0% · Opened at 43.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?
Category
Culture, Music
Scheduled end
January 02, 2027, 02:59 AM ET
Total volume
$148.6K
Volume (24h)
$187
Liquidity
$1.1K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
JAY-Z — 38.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, JAY-Z, is priced at 38.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: +6.5 pts; past month: -24.0 pts.

Since November 12, 2025, JAY-Z has traded between 24.0% and 93.0%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 40.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202631.0%
Oct 15, 202646.0%
Oct 16, 202634.0%
Oct 18, 202640.0%
Oct 19, 202636.5%
Oct 20, 202637.5%
Oct 23, 202640.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

JAY-Z is favored at 38.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
JAY-Z38¢38.0%-2.5 pts$16.6K11.1%
Nicki Minaj30¢30.4%+12.6 pts$15.0K10.1%
Frank Ocean15¢15.0%+1.0 pts$12.5K8.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$148.6K has been traded on this event in total, $187 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 02:59 AM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,139 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Awesome-AvailabilityNo2,139$1.3K
Equal-BreakthroughYes2,000$760
Gummy-TheaterYes497$189
Belated-GlueNo167$104
Big-Hearted-PatrolNo90$56
Watery-SubsetNo84$52
Known-UseYes40$15
Shameful-RamNo33$21
Writhing-ShorelineYes24$9
Fake-Government-PorpoiseYes20$8

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $197 at 69.3%BUY No — $128 at 80.0%BUY No — $82 at 59.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:39 PM ETNoBUY63.0%$3
Oct 24, 02:30 PM ETYesBUY15.0%$3
Oct 24, 02:30 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:53 AM ETNoBUY62.3%$12
Oct 24, 06:33 AM ETYesBUY25.3%$5
Oct 24, 06:33 AM ETYesBUY25.1%$10
Oct 24, 05:22 AM ETYesSELL37.0%$7
Oct 24, 03:49 AM ETNoSELL75.5%$7
Oct 24, 03:49 AM ETNoSELL75.6%$22
Oct 23, 11:31 AM ETNoBUY49.5%$10

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which artists will release a new song in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is JAY-Z at 38.0%. Next is Nicki Minaj at 30.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which artists will release a new song in 2026??

$148.6K in total volume, with $187 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Which artists will release a new song in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 02:59 AM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Which artists will release a new song in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

JAY-Z, priced at 38.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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