As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price JAY-Z at 38.0% in Which artists will release a new song in 2026? — $148.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, JAY-Z, is priced at 38.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: +6.5 pts; past month: -24.0 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, JAY-Z has traded between 24.0% and 93.0%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 40.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 40.5% |
JAY-Z is favored at 38.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAY-Z | 38¢ | 38.0% | -2.5 pts | $16.6K | 11.1% |
| Nicki Minaj | 30¢ | 30.4% | +12.6 pts | $15.0K | 10.1% |
| Frank Ocean | 15¢ | 15.0% | +1.0 pts | $12.5K | 8.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$148.6K has been traded on this event in total, $187 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 02:59 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,139 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | No | 2,139 | $1.3K |
| Equal-Breakthrough | Yes | 2,000 | $760 |
| Gummy-Theater | Yes | 497 | $189 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 167 | $104 |
| Big-Hearted-Patrol | No | 90 | $56 |
| Watery-Subset | No | 84 | $52 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 40 | $15 |
| Shameful-Ram | No | 33 | $21 |
| Writhing-Shoreline | Yes | 24 | $9 |
| Fake-Government-Porpoise | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 62.3% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 06:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.3% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.1% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.5% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.6% | $22 |
| Oct 23, 11:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 49.5% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is JAY-Z at 38.0%. Next is Nicki Minaj at 30.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026?via=bro
$148.6K in total volume, with $187 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 02:59 AM ET.
JAY-Z, priced at 38.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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