As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Export-control chip security at 28.5% in Which bills will become law in 2026? — $188.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Export-control chip security, is priced at 28.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since February 24, 2026, Export-control chip security has traded between 19.5% and 61.0%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 32.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 32.5% |
Export-control chip security is favored at 28.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export-control chip security | 28¢ | 28.5% | -4.0 pts | $5.1K | 2.7% |
| AI-chip export licensing | 20¢ | 20.0% | +3.0 pts | $6.3K | 3.3% |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 18¢ | 18.5% | +2.5 pts | $110.7K | 58.7% |
| Data center utility cost protection | 17¢ | 17.0% | — | $3.4K | 1.8% |
| NO FAKES Act | 14¢ | 14.0% | +1.0 pts | $785 | 0.4% |
| Credit-card routing competition | 13¢ | 13.4% | -0.9 pts | $1.3K | 0.7% |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $1.7K | 0.9% |
| Film/TV production expensing | 7¢ | 6.6% | +0.7 pts | $3.7K | 2.0% |
| $2.50 Coin | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $697 | 0.4% |
| Trump Airport | 6¢ | 5.8% | -35.4 pts | $2.1K | 1.1% |
| DEFIANCE Act | 5¢ | 5.0% | -2.9 pts | $1.0K | 0.5% |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 5¢ | 4.9% | +0.7 pts | $4.3K | 2.3% |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 5¢ | 4.8% | -0.1 pts | $496 | 0.3% |
| SHOWER Act | 4¢ | 3.8% | -0.7 pts | $696 | 0.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 28¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$188.4K has been traded on this event in total, $625 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 3447 (119th) — “Chip Security Act.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 281 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giant-Slip | Yes | 281 | $80 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 208 | $59 |
| Dual-Cephalopod | No | 160 | $114 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 100 | $71 |
| Safe-Driving | No | 99 | $71 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 94 | $67 |
| Gifted-Rancher | No | 68 | $49 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 53 | $15 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 53 | $15 |
| Frosty-Jogging-Pea | No | 43 | $31 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 07:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.8% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 01:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 68.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Export-control chip security at 28.5%. Next is AI-chip export licensing at 20.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026?via=bro
$188.4K in total volume, with $625 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22.
Export-control chip security, priced at 28.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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