Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Druzkhivka at 82.0% in Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027? — $6.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $463.
Leading outcome
Druzkhivka
82%
A 82.0% price implies roughly a 82-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +13.5 pts
Druzkhivka82.0%
Kramatorsk64.5%
Bid
79¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
6¢
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Range since October 22, 2026: 73.0% – 82.0% · Opened at 82.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$6.9K
Volume (24h)
$463
Liquidity
$12.7K
Markets
7
Leading outcome
Druzkhivka — 82.0%
Resolution source
https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Druzkhivka, is priced at 82.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +13.5 pts.

Since October 22, 2026, Druzkhivka has traded between 73.0% and 82.0%. It opened at 82.0% and last traded at 82.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Druzkhivka is favored at 82.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Druzkhivka82¢82.0%+13.5 pts$80311.7%
Kramatorsk64¢64.5%-0.5 pts$93813.6%
Sloviansk53¢53.0%-4.0 pts$4756.9%
Kherson24¢24.0%+3.0 pts$1.5K22.2%
Kharkiv20¢19.5%—$1702.5%
Zaporizhia17¢17.0%-3.0 pts$2.5K36.0%
Sumy16¢16.0%+3.0 pts$4977.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$6.9K has been traded on this event in total, $463 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka (48.61631417285371° N, 37.528161462381036° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 72 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Silly-CoinYes72$59
Burdensome-TogaNo70$13
Overcooked-HordeYes30$25
Direct-ChainstayNo22$4
Oddball-PoisonNo11$2
Belated-GlueYes6$5
Wordy-DoctrineNo5$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $139 at 49.0%BUY Yes — $78 at 21.4%BUY No — $69 at 76.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETNoSELL75.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETNoSELL76.0%$15
Oct 24, 08:29 AM ETYesBUY20.0%$15
Oct 24, 07:14 AM ETYesSELL15.0%$2
Oct 24, 07:14 AM ETYesSELL19.0%$6
Oct 24, 06:59 AM ETNoBUY81.0%$11
Oct 24, 06:58 AM ETNoBUY81.0%$26
Oct 24, 06:06 AM ETNoSELL32.0%$6
Oct 24, 04:16 AM ETYesBUY20.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:16 AM ETNoBUY77.0%$46

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Druzkhivka at 82.0%. Next is Kramatorsk at 64.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027??

$6.9K in total volume, with $463 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.

When does Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6.

What is the most likely outcome of Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

Druzkhivka, priced at 82.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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