Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Druzkhivka at 30.5% in Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? — $1.74M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.7K.
Leading outcome
Druzkhivka
30%
A 30.5% price implies roughly a 30-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +3.0 pts30D −9.0 pts
Druzkhivka30.5%
Sloviansk13.0%
Bid
30¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since May 11, 2026: 23.0% – 54.5% · Opened at 32.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.74M
Volume (24h)
$1.7K
Liquidity
$59.6K
Markets
7
Leading outcome
Druzkhivka — 30.5%
Resolution source
https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Druzkhivka, is priced at 30.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past month: -9.0 pts.

Since May 11, 2026, Druzkhivka has traded between 23.0% and 54.5%. It opened at 32.0% and last traded at 30.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202632.0%
Oct 18, 202630.0%
Oct 19, 202630.5%
Oct 20, 202627.0%
Oct 22, 202627.5%
Oct 23, 202627.5%
Oct 24, 202630.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Druzkhivka is favored at 30.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Druzkhivka30¢30.5%+3.0 pts$338.5K19.4%
Sloviansk13¢13.0%—$192.6K11.1%
Kramatorsk12¢11.5%-0.5 pts$304.2K17.5%
Sumy4¢4.5%-0.1 pts$87.0K5.0%
Zaporizhia3¢3.4%—$226.1K13.0%
Kherson2¢2.1%—$14.9K0.9%
Kharkiv1¢1.1%—$125.7K7.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 31¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.74M has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka (48.61631417285371° N, 37.528161462381036° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 21,619 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Ashamed-RosterNo21,619$15.0K
Quarrelsome-SellerYes14,304$4.4K
Orderly-FennelYes14,192$4.3K
Demanding-ChopsticksNo9,378$6.5K
CompulsiveGamblerNo8,565$6.0K
Assured-PithYes7,623$2.3K
Utilized-ProcurementYes6,562$2.0K
Frosty-StarboardNo6,207$4.3K
Experienced-GoodieYes6,017$1.8K
Focused-JuniorYes6,000$1.8K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $1.6K at 88.4%SELL No — $575 at 95.3%BUY Yes — $252 at 29.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:28 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$4
Oct 24, 03:27 PM ETYesSELL30.0%$6
Oct 24, 09:25 AM ETNoSELL66.0%$33
Oct 24, 08:25 AM ETNoSELL66.0%$33
Oct 24, 08:25 AM ETYesBUY29.5%$252
Oct 24, 08:25 AM ETNoBUY69.0%$34
Oct 24, 08:25 AM ETYesBUY34.0%$34
Oct 24, 07:35 AM ETYesBUY3.5%$1
Oct 24, 04:05 AM ETYesBUY28.0%$23
Oct 24, 03:39 AM ETNoSELL71.5%$176

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which cities will Russia enter by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Druzkhivka at 30.5%. Next is Sloviansk at 13.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which cities will Russia enter by December 31??

$1.74M in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.

When does Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6.

What is the most likely outcome of Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

Druzkhivka, priced at 30.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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