As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Druzkhivka at 30.5% in Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? — $1.74M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Druzkhivka, is priced at 30.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past month: -9.0 pts.
Since May 11, 2026, Druzkhivka has traded between 23.0% and 54.5%. It opened at 32.0% and last traded at 30.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 27.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 30.5% |
Druzkhivka is favored at 30.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Druzkhivka | 30¢ | 30.5% | +3.0 pts | $338.5K | 19.4% |
| Sloviansk | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $192.6K | 11.1% |
| Kramatorsk | 12¢ | 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $304.2K | 17.5% |
| Sumy | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.1 pts | $87.0K | 5.0% |
| Zaporizhia | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $226.1K | 13.0% |
| Kherson | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $14.9K | 0.9% |
| Kharkiv | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $125.7K | 7.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 31¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.74M has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka (48.61631417285371° N, 37.528161462381036° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 21,619 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashamed-Roster | No | 21,619 | $15.0K |
| Quarrelsome-Seller | Yes | 14,304 | $4.4K |
| Orderly-Fennel | Yes | 14,192 | $4.3K |
| Demanding-Chopsticks | No | 9,378 | $6.5K |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | 8,565 | $6.0K |
| Assured-Pith | Yes | 7,623 | $2.3K |
| Utilized-Procurement | Yes | 6,562 | $2.0K |
| Frosty-Starboard | No | 6,207 | $4.3K |
| Experienced-Goodie | Yes | 6,017 | $1.8K |
| Focused-Junior | Yes | 6,000 | $1.8K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 03:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 09:25 AM ET | No | SELL | 66.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 AM ET | No | SELL | 66.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.5% | $252 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 03:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 71.5% | $176 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Druzkhivka at 30.5%. Next is Sloviansk at 13.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31?via=bro
$1.74M in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6.
Druzkhivka, priced at 30.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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