As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Las Vegas, NV at 93.0% in Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31? — $88.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Las Vegas, NV, is priced at 93.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +7.5 pts; past month: +7.5 pts.
Since June 26, 2026, Las Vegas, NV has traded between 43.0% and 93.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 93.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.0% |
Las Vegas, NV is favored at 93.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas, NV | 93¢ | 93.0% | — | $10.6K | 12.0% |
| Denver, CO | 93¢ | 92.7% | -0.1 pts | $11.9K | 13.5% |
| Sacramento, CA | 15¢ | 15.0% | -2.5 pts | $10.8K | 12.2% |
| Detroit, MI | 12¢ | 12.5% | -5.0 pts | $4.5K | 5.0% |
| Portland, OR | 9¢ | 9.0% | +0.5 pts | $3.9K | 4.4% |
| Baltimore, MD | 9¢ | 8.6% | -1.7 pts | $1.9K | 2.1% |
| Chicago, IL | 8¢ | 8.5% | +2.0 pts | $2.2K | 2.5% |
| Seattle, WA | 8¢ | 7.8% | +2.0 pts | $2.7K | 3.1% |
| New Orleans, LA | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $3.0K | 3.4% |
| Boston, MA | 6¢ | 5.8% | +0.3 pts | $4.7K | 5.3% |
| Philadelphia, PA | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $4.3K | 4.8% |
| Minneapolis, MN | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.9K | 3.3% |
| Washington, DC | 4¢ | 4.3% | -0.1 pts | $2.2K | 2.5% |
| Charlotte, NC | 4¢ | 3.9% | +0.9 pts | $1.5K | 1.7% |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 4¢ | 3.9% | -1.1 pts | $1.6K | 1.8% |
| St. Louis, MO | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.8 pts | $1.2K | 1.4% |
| New York, NY | 3¢ | 3.1% | +0.2 pts | $2.6K | 2.9% |
| Tokyo, Japan | 3¢ | 3.1% | +0.6 pts | $550 | 0.6% |
| London, UK | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K | 1.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$88.2K has been traded on this event in total, $357 of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://waymo.com/rides/c
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,350 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internal-Hail | Yes | 1,350 | $1.3K |
| Scarce-Footnote | No | 264 | $18 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 236 | $17 |
| Outlandish-Complicity | No | 187 | $13 |
| Evil-Row | No | 169 | $12 |
| Gifted-Rancher | No | 163 | $11 |
| Measly-Gelatin | Yes | 146 | $136 |
| Known-Use | No | 136 | $10 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 118 | $8 |
| Frilly-Handicap | Yes | 101 | $94 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 11:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.2% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 11:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.8% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 10:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 03:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $33 |
| Oct 23, 03:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 03:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $97 |
| Oct 23, 03:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Las Vegas, NV at 93.0%. Next is Denver, CO at 92.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-waymo-launch-in-by-december-31-20260626201631463?via=bro
$88.2K in total volume, with $357 traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://waymo.com/rides/c.
Las Vegas, NV, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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