As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 62.0% in Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? — $222.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 62.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.5 pts; past week: +4.5 pts.
Since October 06, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 49.5% and 77.0%. It opened at 71.5% and last traded at 62.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 62.0% |
Anthropic is favored at 62.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 62¢ | 62.0% | -6.5 pts | $2.5K | 1.1% |
| Meta | 13¢ | 13.0% | +1.5 pts | $24.9K | 11.2% |
| OpenAI | 12¢ | 11.5% | -1.5 pts | $41.3K | 18.5% |
| xAI | 9¢ | 9.0% | +2.0 pts | $11.3K | 5.0% |
| DeepSeek | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $25.5K | 11.4% |
| Baidu | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $3.8K | 1.7% |
| Amazon | 5¢ | 4.8% | -0.1 pts | $9.2K | 4.1% |
| Alibaba | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $5.7K | 2.5% |
| Microsoft | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $5.5K | 2.4% |
| Z.ai | 4¢ | 4.2% | — | $8.1K | 3.6% |
| Moonshot | 3¢ | 2.8% | — | $15.2K | 6.8% |
| Mistral | 3¢ | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $12.9K | 5.8% |
| Meituan | 2¢ | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $6.2K | 2.8% |
| ByteDance | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $4.7K | 2.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 61¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$222.9K has been traded on this event in total, $942 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 426 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 426 | $162 |
| Chubby-Nanoparticle | Yes | 270 | $167 |
| Cylindrical-Ale | Yes | 184 | $114 |
| Ordinary-Iron | Yes | 139 | $86 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 138 | $52 |
| Ragged-Thongs | No | 124 | $47 |
| Itchy-Cria | Yes | 99 | $61 |
| Impartial-Harmonize | No | 96 | $36 |
| Kindly-Refrigerator | Yes | 80 | $50 |
| Hard-Boat | No | 61 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.2% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.3% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.3% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 62.0%. Next is Meta at 13.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31?via=bro
$222.9K in total volume, with $942 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Anthropic, priced at 62.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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