As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Unusual Machines at 49.0% in Which companies will the US take a stake in? — $221.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Unusual Machines, is priced at 49.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.5 pts; past week: +16.5 pts; past month: +9.0 pts.
Since June 18, 2026, Unusual Machines has traded between 13.5% and 58.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 55.0% |
Unusual Machines is favored at 49.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unusual Machines | 49¢ | 49.0% | +7.5 pts | $1.8K | 0.8% |
| Anduril | 22¢ | 22.0% | +0.5 pts | $54.8K | 24.8% |
| TSMC | 16¢ | 16.5% | +2.5 pts | $19.6K | 8.9% |
| OpenAI | 14¢ | 14.5% | — | $12.7K | 5.7% |
| Eli Lilly | 11¢ | 11.4% | +0.2 pts | $4.4K | 2.0% |
| Nvidia | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $18.3K | 8.2% |
| Lockheed Martin | 10¢ | 9.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.1K | 1.8% |
| Freeport-McMoRan | 8¢ | 8.0% | — | $3.5K | 1.6% |
| IonQ | 8¢ | 8.0% | -1.0 pts | $5.3K | 2.4% |
| SpaceX | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $256 | 0.1% |
| Micron | 8¢ | 7.5% | +1.5 pts | $3.1K | 1.4% |
| Boeing | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $12.1K | 5.5% |
| Palantir | 6¢ | 5.8% | +1.2 pts | $5.4K | 2.4% |
| Pfizer | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.2 pts | $7.1K | 3.2% |
| Samsung Electronics | 4¢ | 4.1% | -0.4 pts | $10.4K | 4.7% |
| Anthropic | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $8.2K | 3.7% |
| TikTok US / Bytedance | 4¢ | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $6.7K | 3.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$221.4K has been traded on this event in total, $721 of it in the last 24 hours, across 17 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 271 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 271 | $133 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 172 | $88 |
| Shameful-Ram | No | 85 | $43 |
| Venerated-Worm | No | 20 | $10 |
| Voluminous-Publishing | Yes | 16 | $8 |
| Valid-Consonant | No | 10 | $5 |
| Immense-Strategy | No | 6 | $3 |
| These-Latency-Perspective | Yes | 4 | $2 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 3 | $1 |
| Squiggly-Waiting | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 02:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 10:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.1% | $173 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Unusual Machines at 49.0%. Next is Anduril at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in?via=bro
$221.4K in total volume, with $721 traded in the last 24 hours across 17 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Unusual Machines, priced at 49.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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