Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Unusual Machines at 49.0% in Which companies will the US take a stake in? — $221.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $721.
Leading outcome
Unusual Machines
49%
A 49.0% price implies roughly a 49-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +7.5 pts7D +16.5 pts30D +9.0 pts
Unusual Machines49.0%
Anduril22.0%
Bid
38¢
Ask
60¢
Spread
22¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 18, 2026: 13.5% – 58.0% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
Category
Politics, Tech, Economy, Trump, Big Tech
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$221.4K
Volume (24h)
$721
Liquidity
$14.5K
Markets
17
Leading outcome
Unusual Machines — 49.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Unusual Machines, is priced at 49.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.5 pts; past week: +16.5 pts; past month: +9.0 pts.

Since June 18, 2026, Unusual Machines has traded between 13.5% and 58.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 55.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202632.0%
Oct 18, 202637.5%
Oct 19, 202629.5%
Oct 20, 202632.0%
Oct 22, 202649.0%
Oct 23, 202640.5%
Oct 24, 202655.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Unusual Machines is favored at 49.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Unusual Machines49¢49.0%+7.5 pts$1.8K0.8%
Anduril22¢22.0%+0.5 pts$54.8K24.8%
TSMC16¢16.5%+2.5 pts$19.6K8.9%
OpenAI14¢14.5%—$12.7K5.7%
Eli Lilly11¢11.4%+0.2 pts$4.4K2.0%
Nvidia10¢9.5%—$18.3K8.2%
Lockheed Martin10¢9.5%+0.5 pts$4.1K1.8%
Freeport-McMoRan8¢8.0%—$3.5K1.6%
IonQ8¢8.0%-1.0 pts$5.3K2.4%
SpaceX8¢7.5%—$2560.1%
Micron8¢7.5%+1.5 pts$3.1K1.4%
Boeing6¢6.0%—$12.1K5.5%
Palantir6¢5.8%+1.2 pts$5.4K2.4%
Pfizer5¢5.1%+0.2 pts$7.1K3.2%
Samsung Electronics4¢4.1%-0.4 pts$10.4K4.7%
Anthropic4¢4.0%—$8.2K3.7%
TikTok US / Bytedance4¢3.6%+0.1 pts$6.7K3.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$221.4K has been traded on this event in total, $721 of it in the last 24 hours, across 17 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 271 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes271$133
Crazy-FishmongerNo172$88
Shameful-RamNo85$43
Venerated-WormNo20$10
Voluminous-PublishingYes16$8
Valid-ConsonantNo10$5
Immense-StrategyNo6$3
These-Latency-PerspectiveYes4$2
0x6b0ebbef…Yes3$1
Squiggly-WaitingYes1$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $583 at 88.0%BUY No — $324 at 87.8%BUY No — $173 at 87.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:23 PM ETNoSELL85.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:13 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$3
Oct 24, 02:55 PM ETYesBUY17.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:33 PM ETNoSELL77.0%$15
Oct 24, 02:33 PM ETYesBUY23.0%$9
Oct 24, 02:33 PM ETYesBUY24.0%$5
Oct 24, 02:29 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$12
Oct 24, 02:19 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$5
Oct 24, 02:09 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$4
Oct 23, 10:42 PM ETNoBUY87.1%$173

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which companies will the US take a stake in??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Unusual Machines at 49.0%. Next is Anduril at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which companies will the US take a stake in??

$221.4K in total volume, with $721 traded in the last 24 hours across 17 markets.

When does Which companies will the US take a stake in? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Which companies will the US take a stake in?, according to Polymarket traders?

Unusual Machines, priced at 49.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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