As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Google at 84.6% in Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On) — $85.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Google, is priced at 84.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.4 pts; past week: +6.5 pts; past month: +76.8 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, Google has traded between 2.6% and 84.6%. It opened at 4.5% and last traded at 84.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 68.1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 74.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 74.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.6% |
Google is favored at 84.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85¢ | 84.6% | +1.4 pts | $13.4K | 15.7% | |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Anthropic | 6¢ | 5.5% | -5.5 pts | $39.4K | 46.2% |
| Meta | 5¢ | 4.7% | +2.1 pts | $5.9K | 6.9% |
| OpenAI | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.4 pts | $6.0K | 7.0% |
| Moonshot | 1¢ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $3.0K | 3.5% |
| Alibaba | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | 2.8% |
| Z.ai | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.5K | 2.9% |
| SpaceXAI | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | 2.3% |
| Baidu | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $667 | 0.8% |
| Xiaomi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | 2.0% |
| DeepSeek | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | 1.9% |
| ByteDance | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $699 | 0.8% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $726 | 0.9% |
| Thinky | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $692 | 0.8% |
| Meituan | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $671 | 0.8% |
| Mistral | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $625 | 0.7% |
| Amazon | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $537 | 0.6% |
| Nvidia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $773 | 0.9% |
| Tencent | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $683 | 0.8% |
| StepFun | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $735 | 0.9% |
| Microsoft | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $681 | 0.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 82¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$85.3K has been traded on this event in total, $2.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,820 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,820 | $588 |
| Sniveling-Dart | Yes | 1,068 | $904 |
| All-Calculator | Yes | 710 | $601 |
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 427 | $361 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 412 | $348 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 337 | $285 |
| Bad-Fool-Enrollment | Yes | 274 | $232 |
| Unfinished-Belt | Yes | 217 | $184 |
| Well-Groomed-Chapel | Yes | 211 | $179 |
| Natural-Vacation | Yes | 200 | $169 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 83.1% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 83.2% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.7% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.6% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 84.6% | $51 |
| Oct 24, 04:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.6% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.6% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.6% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Google at 84.6%. Next is Company A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-1-ai-model-end-of-october-style-control-on?via=bro
$85.3K in total volume, with $2.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall.
Google, priced at 84.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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