As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Google at 69.5% in Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December? — $9.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Google, is priced at 69.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +21.0 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, Google has traded between 22.5% and 70.0%. It opened at 22.5% and last traded at 68.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 68.0% |
Google is favored at 69.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70¢ | 69.5% | +1.5 pts | $3.4K | 34.6% | |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH | 21¢ | 21.2% | -0.9 pts | $850 | 8.8% |
| Pruna | 21¢ | 21.1% | -1.1 pts | $200 | 2.1% |
| Black Forest Labs | 21¢ | 20.8% | -1.1 pts | $240 | 2.5% |
| Meta | 21¢ | 20.8% | +1.3 pts | $205 | 2.1% |
| Pika | 21¢ | 20.7% | -1.1 pts | $163 | 1.7% |
| ByteDance | 10¢ | 10.0% | — | $844 | 8.7% |
| OpenAI | 10¢ | 10.0% | +1.0 pts | $2.1K | 21.3% |
| MiniMax | 5¢ | 5.1% | +4.8 pts | $207 | 2.1% |
| SpaceXAI | 4¢ | 4.3% | — | $172 | 1.8% |
| Pixverse | 3¢ | 3.5% | — | $158 | 1.6% |
| Lightricks | 3¢ | 2.7% | — | $192 | 2.0% |
| Luma AI | 3¢ | 2.5% | — | $181 | 1.9% |
| Runway | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $176 | 1.8% |
| Tencent | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $217 | 2.2% |
| Kandinsky | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $166 | 1.7% |
| Genmo AI | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $144 | 1.5% |
| KlingAI | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $163 | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 39¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.7K has been traded on this event in total, $31 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 725 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 725 | $504 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 178 | $54 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 157 | $48 |
| Arid-Cinema | No | 150 | $46 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 105 | $32 |
| Wasteful-Sensor | No | 100 | $30 |
| Jumbo-Cupcake | Yes | 53 | $37 |
| Elated-Conspirator-Copying | No | 39 | $12 |
| Advanced-Mailer | No | 35 | $11 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 24 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 10:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $9 |
| Oct 18, 06:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.2% | $82 |
| Oct 15, 09:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 09:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 09:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 09:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $3 |
| Oct 14, 09:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $235 |
| Oct 13, 05:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 50.0% | $30 |
| Oct 12, 03:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 12, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 49.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Google at 69.5%. Next is Company A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-text-to-video-ai-end-of-december-2026?via=bro
$9.7K in total volume, with $31 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Google, priced at 69.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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