As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Google at 78.0% in Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October? — $48.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Google, is priced at 78.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, Google has traded between 22.0% and 80.5%. It opened at 22.0% and last traded at 79.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 79.0% |
Google is favored at 78.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78¢ | 78.0% | -1.0 pts | $28.2K | 58.7% | |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| ByteDance | 13¢ | 13.0% | +2.0 pts | $6.6K | 13.8% |
| KlingAI | 12¢ | 12.1% | +5.3 pts | $1.8K | 3.8% |
| OpenAI | 5¢ | 5.2% | -0.1 pts | $986 | 2.1% |
| Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH | 3¢ | 2.6% | +0.9 pts | $1.1K | 2.3% |
| SpaceXAI | 1¢ | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $948 | 2.0% |
| Pika | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $705 | 1.5% |
| Kandinsky | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $682 | 1.4% |
| Tencent | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $758 | 1.6% |
| Luma AI | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $764 | 1.6% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $673 | 1.4% |
| Genmo AI | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $708 | 1.5% |
| Runway | 0¢ | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $647 | 1.3% |
| Pruna | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $595 | 1.2% |
| Meta | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $825 | 1.7% |
| Pixverse | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.4K | 2.9% |
| Lightricks | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $619 | 1.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$48.1K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 31 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 840 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 840 | $655 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 700 | $154 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 654 | $144 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 233 | $182 |
| Trained-Sprinkles | Yes | 156 | $122 |
| Triangular-Genre | Yes | 127 | $99 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 103 | $23 |
| Calculating-Skirt | No | 100 | $22 |
| Boiling-Point | No | 100 | $22 |
| Immaterial-Secretariat | Yes | 94 | $73 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 03:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 08:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.4% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 08:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.4% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 08:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.8% | $10 |
| Oct 17, 05:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 03:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 16, 03:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 16, 03:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 03:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Google at 78.0%. Next is Other at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-text-to-video-ai-end-of-october?via=bro
$48.1K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 31 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video.
Google, priced at 78.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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