As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price None in 2026 at 66.5% in Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? — $135.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, None in 2026, is priced at 66.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -17.5 pts.
Since February 13, 2026, None in 2026 has traded between 14.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 66.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 66.5% |
None in 2026 is favored at 66.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None in 2026 | 66¢ | 66.5% | -3.0 pts | $27.8K | 20.6% |
| Anthropic | 17¢ | 17.0% | +0.5 pts | $20.6K | 15.2% |
| 16¢ | 15.8% | +0.2 pts | $15.8K | 11.7% | |
| OpenAI | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.3 pts | $16.2K | 12.0% |
| xAI | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $10.2K | 7.6% |
| Alibaba | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $11.4K | 8.5% |
| DeepSeek | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $13.8K | 10.2% |
| Z.ai | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $9.9K | 7.3% |
| Mistral | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.5K | 7.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$135.2K has been traded on this event in total, $21 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolution source: https://lmarena.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,763 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 6,763 | $2.3K |
| Willing-Arm | Yes | 4,925 | $3.3K |
| Busy-Doorpost | No | 659 | $221 |
| Intentional-Kitten | Yes | 555 | $369 |
| Jaunty-Communist | Yes | 524 | $349 |
| Grown-Billion | Yes | 479 | $318 |
| Guilty-Spring | Yes | 421 | $280 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 350 | $233 |
| Unfinished-Belt | Yes | 289 | $192 |
| Past-Laboratory | Yes | 252 | $168 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:56 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:56 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 04:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 33.1% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 12:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 12:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 59.0% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 03:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $3 |
| Oct 18, 10:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 10:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $12 |
| Oct 17, 11:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is None in 2026 at 66.5%. Next is Anthropic at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026?via=bro
$135.2K in total volume, with $21 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://lmarena.ai/.
None in 2026, priced at 66.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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