As of October 24, 2026, 08:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Japan at 31.5% in Which countries will Clavicular visit in 2026? — $36.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Japan, is priced at 31.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -9.0 pts; past week: +13.5 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.
Since July 14, 2026, Japan has traded between 15.0% and 73.5%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 32.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 32.5% |
Japan is favored at 31.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 32¢ | 31.5% | -9.0 pts | $8.9K | 24.3% |
| Colombia | 30¢ | 29.5% | -3.5 pts | $314 | 0.9% |
| Brazil | 28¢ | 28.0% | +1.0 pts | $4.0K | 11.0% |
| South Korea | 17¢ | 17.2% | +0.1 pts | $4.2K | 11.4% |
| United Kingdom | 17¢ | 17.0% | +0.5 pts | $5.7K | 15.6% |
| Thailand | 14¢ | 13.8% | -2.5 pts | $2.6K | 7.0% |
| Philippines | 14¢ | 13.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.4K | 9.2% |
| Russia | 6¢ | 6.0% | -7.0 pts | $194 | 0.5% |
| China | 6¢ | 5.7% | +1.4 pts | $1.3K | 3.6% |
| Germany | 4¢ | 4.0% | -1.1 pts | $2.1K | 5.8% |
| Iran | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $217 | 0.6% |
| North Korea | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $3.7K | 10.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 27¢ (bid 18¢ / ask 45¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$36.6K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If Clavicular, otherwise known as Braden Peters, visits a listed country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Clavicular physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Clavicular enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For the purposes of this market, "China" includes all territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 390 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 390 | $123 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 202 | $64 |
| Rough-Role | No | 187 | $128 |
| Evil-Row | No | 174 | $119 |
| Playful-Circulation | No | 153 | $105 |
| Helpful-Cheese | No | 100 | $68 |
| Crazykekbr | No | 71 | $49 |
| Unaware-Jackal | No | 70 | $48 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 62 | $20 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 50 | $16 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.2% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.1% | $11 |
| Oct 18, 06:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $18 |
| Oct 17, 11:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.3% | $3 |
| Oct 16, 12:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.9% | $18 |
| Oct 16, 12:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $10 |
| Oct 16, 12:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.2% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 03:47 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 06:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 05:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Japan at 31.5%. Next is Colombia at 29.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-clavicular-visit-in-2026-20260714153003043?via=bro
$36.6K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Japan, priced at 31.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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