As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Ethiopia at 37.5% in Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026? — $75.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Ethiopia, is priced at 37.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +14.0 pts; past week: +24.0 pts; past month: -15.0 pts.
Since May 22, 2026, Ethiopia has traded between 6.5% and 58.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 35.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 35.0% |
Ethiopia is favored at 37.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia | 38¢ | 37.5% | +14.0 pts | $590 | 0.8% |
| Somalia | 35¢ | 35.0% | -1.0 pts | $549 | 0.7% |
| South Sudan | 32¢ | 32.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.4K | 7.1% |
| Republic of the Congo | 24¢ | 24.0% | +2.5 pts | $16.7K | 22.2% |
| Rwanda | 22¢ | 21.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.0K | 5.3% |
| Burundi | 18¢ | 17.5% | +1.5 pts | $334 | 0.4% |
| United States | 16¢ | 16.5% | +4.0 pts | $11.3K | 15.0% |
| India | 12¢ | 12.0% | — | $868 | 1.2% |
| Canada | 12¢ | 11.5% | +2.5 pts | $3.6K | 4.7% |
| China | 10¢ | 10.5% | +2.5 pts | $4.6K | 6.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 55¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$75.2K has been traded on this event in total, $290 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 222 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 222 | $139 |
| Brief-Beet | Yes | 150 | $56 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | Yes | 81 | $30 |
| Feline-Asparagus | No | 56 | $35 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 50 | $19 |
| Rubbery-Policy | No | 20 | $12 |
| Pretty-Seaside | Yes | 12 | $4 |
| Evergreen-Frequency | Yes | 5 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.8% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $90 |
| Oct 23, 01:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 09:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $40 |
| Oct 22, 04:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 10:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 06:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 02:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Ethiopia at 37.5%. Next is Somalia at 35.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-have-an-ebola-case-in-2026?via=bro
$75.2K in total volume, with $290 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ethiopia, priced at 37.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.