As of October 24, 2026, 08:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Israel at 14.0% in Which countries will make Eric Adams a citizen? — $2.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Israel, is priced at 14.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts.
Since April 18, 2026, Israel has traded between 10.5% and 44.5%. It opened at 20.5% and last traded at 14.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 14.0% |
Israel is favored at 14.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 14¢ | 14.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Sudan | 9¢ | 9.2% | +0.3 pts | $2.2K | 94.8% |
| China | 9¢ | 9.0% | — | $22 | 1.0% |
| Russia | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $96 | 4.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 20¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 24¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from Eric Adams indicating intent to seek citizenship from the listed country will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from the listed country or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Eric Adams a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only the listed country's actually making Eric Adams a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of the listed country or Eric Adams. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 11:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.5% | $0 |
| Aug 05, 05:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Jul 29, 02:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.5% | $15 |
| Jul 25, 10:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $25 |
| Jul 19, 07:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.5% | $1 |
| Jul 13, 12:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Jul 12, 08:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $0 |
| Jul 04, 11:20 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.9% | $0 |
| Jul 04, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.6% | $1 |
| Jun 28, 10:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Israel at 14.0%. Next is Sudan at 9.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-make-eric-adams-a-citizen?via=bro
$2.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Israel, priced at 14.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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