As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Belgium at 12.5% in Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? — $763.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Belgium, is priced at 12.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +4.5 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, Belgium has traded between 5.5% and 57.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 12.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 12.5% |
Belgium is favored at 12.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 12¢ | 12.5% | -0.5 pts | $80.3K | 10.5% |
| New Zealand | 10¢ | 9.5% | +1.0 pts | $124.7K | 16.3% |
| Italy | 8¢ | 8.5% | +1.5 pts | $28.2K | 3.7% |
| Finland | 8¢ | 7.5% | -1.5 pts | $38.9K | 5.1% |
| Greece | 7¢ | 7.1% | -0.1 pts | $47.2K | 6.2% |
| The Netherlands | 6¢ | 6.0% | -0.5 pts | $63.0K | 8.2% |
| United States | 5¢ | 5.4% | -1.7 pts | $27.9K | 3.7% |
| Germany | 5¢ | 4.6% | -0.1 pts | $130.3K | 17.1% |
| Japan | 4¢ | 4.2% | — | $49.4K | 6.5% |
| Austria | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.2 pts | $173.5K | 22.7% |
| Israel | 4¢ | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $299 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$763.5K has been traded on this event in total, $48 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 661 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plastic-Larder | No | 661 | $578 |
| Glum-Kitty | No | 297 | $260 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 238 | $30 |
| Some-Rooster | Yes | 230 | $29 |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 220 | $27 |
| First-Combination | No | 198 | $173 |
| Scary-Biology | No | 193 | $169 |
| Forthright-Avalanche-Amendment | Yes | 158 | $20 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 153 | $19 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 117 | $15 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.8% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 06:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.9% | $30 |
| Oct 21, 02:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 02:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 02:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 02:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 01:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.6% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 01:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 01:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Belgium at 12.5%. Next is New Zealand at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027?via=bro
$763.5K in total volume, with $48 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Belgium, priced at 12.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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