As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price US at 22.5% in Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31? — $51.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, US, is priced at 22.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.0 pts; past week: -5.5 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since August 26, 2026, US has traded between 15.5% and 51.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 28.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 28.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 28.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 28.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 28.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 28.5% |
US is favored at 22.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 22¢ | 22.5% | -6.0 pts | $20.3K | 39.1% |
| UK | 15¢ | 15.0% | +0.5 pts | $617 | 1.2% |
| Australia | 15¢ | 15.0% | — | $24 | 0.0% |
| Italy | 13¢ | 13.0% | -1.0 pts | $86 | 0.2% |
| Greece | 12¢ | 11.7% | +0.4 pts | $86 | 0.2% |
| Germany | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $39 | 0.1% |
| France | 9¢ | 9.0% | — | $14.3K | 27.5% |
| Netherlands | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $16.5K | 31.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$51.9K has been traded on this event in total, $211 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,586 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foolish-Contrail | Yes | 8,586 | $1.9K |
| Scratchy-Loading | No | 8,092 | $6.3K |
| Luminous-Insectarium | No | 1,206 | $934 |
| Blond-Wriggler | No | 781 | $605 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 757 | $170 |
| Modern-Malice | Yes | 390 | $88 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 375 | $84 |
| Scrawny-Debris | No | 338 | $262 |
| Tangible-Exasperation-Grit | No | 100 | $78 |
| Cooperative-Metal | Yes | 99 | $22 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.6% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 11:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 11:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $37 |
| Oct 15, 02:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 06:52 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $24 |
| Oct 10, 04:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $2 |
| Oct 06, 03:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $4 |
| Oct 06, 03:15 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is US at 22.5%. Next is UK at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31?via=bro
$51.9K in total volume, with $211 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US, priced at 22.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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