Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price US at 22.5% in Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31? — $51.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $211.
Leading outcome
US
22%
A 22.5% price implies roughly a 22-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −6.0 pts7D −5.5 pts30D −6.0 pts
US22.5%
UK15.0%
Bid
20¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
5¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 26, 2026: 15.5% – 51.5% · Opened at 51.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
Category
Oil, Iran, Naval, Hormuz, US-Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$51.9K
Volume (24h)
$211
Liquidity
$53.9K
Markets
8
Leading outcome
US — 22.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, US, is priced at 22.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.0 pts; past week: -5.5 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.

Since August 26, 2026, US has traded between 15.5% and 51.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 28.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202628.0%
Oct 16, 202628.0%
Oct 18, 202628.0%
Oct 19, 202626.0%
Oct 20, 202626.0%
Oct 22, 202628.0%
Oct 23, 202628.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

US is favored at 22.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
US22¢22.5%-6.0 pts$20.3K39.1%
UK15¢15.0%+0.5 pts$6171.2%
Australia15¢15.0%—$240.0%
Italy13¢13.0%-1.0 pts$860.2%
Greece12¢11.7%+0.4 pts$860.2%
Germany10¢9.5%—$390.1%
France9¢9.0%—$14.3K27.5%
Netherlands4¢4.5%—$16.5K31.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$51.9K has been traded on this event in total, $211 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,586 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Foolish-ContrailYes8,586$1.9K
Scratchy-LoadingNo8,092$6.3K
Luminous-InsectariumNo1,206$934
Blond-WrigglerNo781$605
NoSteinNoGateYes757$170
Modern-MaliceYes390$88
Straight-WrinkleYes375$84
Scrawny-DebrisNo338$262
Tangible-Exasperation-GritNo100$78
Cooperative-MetalYes99$22

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $962 at 12.0%BUY No — $51 at 81.0%SELL No — $49 at 89.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:45 PM ETYesSELL25.6%$37
Oct 24, 07:35 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$2
Oct 23, 10:52 PM ETYesSELL26.0%$7
Oct 20, 11:48 PM ETYesBUY8.0%$1
Oct 20, 11:48 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$37
Oct 15, 02:41 AM ETYesBUY11.0%$2
Oct 11, 06:52 AM ETYesSELL26.0%$24
Oct 10, 04:30 PM ETYesBUY29.0%$2
Oct 06, 03:17 PM ETNoSELL71.0%$4
Oct 06, 03:15 PM ETYesSELL28.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is US at 22.5%. Next is UK at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31??

$51.9K in total volume, with $211 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.

When does Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

US, priced at 22.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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