As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Canada at 13.0% in Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? — $404.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Canada, is priced at 13.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, Canada has traded between 7.0% and 64.0%. It opened at 64.0% and last traded at 13.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 13.0% |
Canada is favored at 13.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 13¢ | 13.0% | +0.5 pts | $24.2K | 6.0% |
| Israel | 12¢ | 12.0% | — | $906 | 0.2% |
| Vietnam | 11¢ | 11.1% | -1.6 pts | $10.8K | 2.7% |
| Australia | 11¢ | 11.0% | — | $6.4K | 1.6% |
| Mexico | 10¢ | 10.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.5K | 0.9% |
| United Kingdom | 10¢ | 10.5% | — | $649 | 0.2% |
| Russia | 10¢ | 10.5% | — | $2.5K | 0.6% |
| India | 10¢ | 10.0% | — | $73.2K | 18.1% |
| Taiwan | 10¢ | 9.6% | -0.1 pts | $35.2K | 8.7% |
| Pakistan | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $105.7K | 26.2% |
| Japan | 9¢ | 9.4% | +1.4 pts | $18.1K | 4.5% |
| South Korea | 9¢ | 9.2% | -0.4 pts | $60.9K | 15.1% |
| Argentina | 9¢ | 9.0% | +0.5 pts | $23.0K | 5.7% |
| Indonesia | 8¢ | 8.5% | +0.5 pts | $19.9K | 4.9% |
| Brazil | 7¢ | 7.0% | -0.3 pts | $4.9K | 1.2% |
| South Africa | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $614 | 0.2% |
| European Union | 6¢ | 5.5% | +0.9 pts | $13.5K | 3.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$404.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 17 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,750 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silent-Obsidian | No | 3,750 | $3.3K |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 2,399 | $312 |
| Shady-Dog | Yes | 1,308 | $170 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Revenge | No | 1,000 | $870 |
| Glittering-Laparoscope | No | 693 | $603 |
| Tasty-License | Yes | 659 | $86 |
| Modern-Malice | No | 450 | $392 |
| Adored-Odometer | Yes | 227 | $30 |
| Other-Cone | Yes | 200 | $26 |
| Unwritten-Hybridization | No | 150 | $131 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 03:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 02:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.5% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.2% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 02:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.4% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 01:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 01:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 10:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 09:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 09:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Canada at 13.0%. Next is Israel at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921?via=bro
$404.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 17 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Canada, priced at 13.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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